Nowcasting “Core GDP”

From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, numbers that perhaps better represent the trajectory of  aggregate demand.
 

Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), GDPNow of 1/29 (light blue square), Goldman Sachs of 1/29 (red triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q3 updated release, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.
 

Core GDP is tracked by Goldman Sachs as decelerating from 3.0% q/q AR to 2.5%, and accelerating to 3.4% by the Atlanta Fed. Either one is a respectable number, but neither gets “Core GDP” back to the 2023-24 trend.

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