November 2019 CPI inflation

Inflation remains in a holding pattern - about 2.3% core inflation, which consists of 3.3% shelter inflation and 1.6% non-shelter core inflation.

The yield curve is, similarly, in a holding pattern. How this plays out will depend on unanticipated real shocks over time and the future bias of the Federal Reserve. My inclination is to continue to believe the short term outcome will mostly accrue to declining Treasury yields and the depth of that decline will greatly depend on the willingness of the Federal Reserve to support short term NGDP growth. The slow-moving train wreck (or not) continues. As long as non-shelter core inflation remains below target and the yield curve remains effectively inverted, my expectations will be somewhat bearish.