Noonan's Final Analysis Of The Gold & Silver Market

Written by Michael Noonan (EdgeTraderPlus.com)

Precious metals remain within the eye of a deceptively manipulated economic hurricane.

• Gold is nowhere near breaking out to the upside.  Read whatever you want into the news and constant barrage of strong “fundamental” factors, which are overwhelmingly real, but the charts, as determined by reading the activity of the central bankers controlling the market, reveal it will take still more time before gold breaks out to the upside with any conviction.
• Again, you can believe the news and all of the fanfare on how bullish the factors are for silver, and how silver is poised for an astonishing rally, but the charts, at least for now, tell us that this market ain’t going higher any time soon.

When and how gold breaks through the $1,400 price level will be an important watermark for gold’s next upside directional move.  Until that happens, and the “when” factor remains unknown, gold remains in a bottoming process.

Gold: Monthly Chart

...A standout feature is the record high monthly volume for July and the accompanying small range bar.  The fact that the range of the bar is so small, relative to the great volume effort, tells us sellers put another temporary cap on the market.  The small range on the Qrtly chart (last bar) and poor close location supports that conclusion.  You can see the rally throughout 2016 (Qrtly) ended with a go-nowhere swing high and slightly higher net close. Further, all of the volume effort failed to reach the resistance level before stalling out,  another sign of near-term weakness.

These larger time frame chart references say gold is nowhere near breaking out to the upside.  Read whatever you want into the news and constant barrage of strong “fundamental” factors, which are overwhelmingly real, the charts, as now determined by reading the activity of those in charge (central bankers controlling the market), the charts reveal it will take still more time before gold breaks out to the upside with any conviction.

The strongest resistance is seen at the top of the chart, near 1400.  The lesser levels of support and resistance are being played out between 1300 and 1375+/-.  1300 looks susceptible.  The chart comments give lower support targets if 1300 gives way.

Gold: Weekly Chart

The two most important components in reading developing market activity are price and volume.  Volume is the fuel to drive price directionally.  You can see all of the highest volume days did nothing to move price even into the upper half  of the TR, let alone break above resistance.

The resulting “message from the market” is sellers are more than matching the effort of buyers, and when buyers cannot overcome sellers, price will  move lower.  That is the probability factor for the market, still.

Silver: Monthly Chart

The higher time frames for silver are similar to gold yet simpler in their “read.”  With no standout feature, silver’s simplest interpretation is that it continues to be bottoming, and that process remains ongoing.  The KISS principle at work.

The end of the June wide range bars rally failed to reach even the lowest of the failed swing high resistance.  You can see how volume increased as the swing high at 21 was reached.  This is the opposite of how volume functions in a rally.  Strong-handed buyers get in at the low of a range where volume should be higher and then diminish as a swing high is reached.  You can see the mid-range close on the swing high bar that also attracted the highest volume.  This scenario tells us that sellers overcame buyers and kept price from closing higher.  Price has been correcting ever since. That is how the market “speaks,” price and volume.

Silver: Weekly Chart

Silver: Daily Chart

The daily TR looks to be one of weakness in its development.  The higher time frames say the bottom is still in process.  This is not to say the December ’15 lows are not the final low, for they well could be, but that there is more work to be done at these lower levels before a strong and sustained bull market can get underway.

Again, you can believe the news and all of the fanfare on how bullish the factors are for silver, especially, and how silver is poised for an astonishing rally, but the charts, at least for now, tell us that this market ain’t going higher any time soon.

As a prelude to what follows, we remain strong advocates of buying, and personally holding, both physical gold and silver.  If readers have learned nothing else, if you do not actually have possession, you may never likely have any of the PMs you bought, based on results on a world-wide scope.  Everyone has to decide for themselves.  What the governments may do to make the future use of precious metals in any form of transactions is up for grabs.  More than likely, all control will be placed in the hands of those who rule. They want your gold and silver, as well as your guns, and that message is the strongest reason for your having and holding them. Those who have none will suffer the worst.

Precious metals remain within the eye of a deceptively manipulated economic hurricane.

Editor's Note: This article is Michael's last weekly commentary on the markets having concluded that:

"...Our weekly repeating the situation for gold and silver, waiting for the changes that have been kept suppressed by the globalists in order to preserve their fictional fiat world and ruining it for everyone else in the process, has become too tedious when there is no apparent end of the absurd for who knows how much longer, but end it will and for the worse, at least in our opinion.  Of course, we would love to be proven wrong...Reality has become distorted to the point of nonexistence, at least for us, which is why we choose silence as opposed to trying to rationalize the corruption that rules the world.  It is possible we may write something on a monthly or quarterly basis, but like the markets, the future is unknown.  Time and events will tell...

Cheers, Michael"