What did we think was happening back then, compared to what we know now?
Figure 1: Nonresidential fixed investment from 2001Q1 advance release (blue), from 2026Q2 2nd release (black), both in logs, 1999Q1=0. NBER defined peak to trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, NBER.
To compare annualized growth rates, in 2000Q1, nonresidential fixed investment was growing 19.1% according to the 2001Q1 advance vintage, but only 14.4% according to the latest vintage.
Currently, 2026Q2 2nd release investment is growing, 8.2%, down from 10.1% in Q1. GDPNow today reads 9.1% (annualized) growth for Q3. So, the AI driven boom still looks strong, but recall these numbers will be revised…
Figure 2: Nonresidential fixed investment (black), implied GDPNow (light blue square), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: 2026Q2 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, author’s calculations.
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