Nonfarm Payrolls Decline By 92,000 In February, Household Data Is Garbage

Understanding the Lead Chart

Before discussing the February 2026 data, it is important to understand the lead chart.

Every January (typically), the BLS has annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls and household population employment. The BLS does not back revise the household charts.

Because the BLS does not back revise, we see ridiculous numbers such as employment rising by over 2 million in a month (yellow arrow).

To correct for the population adjustments, the BLS provides an adjustment series to normalize employment levels to match nonfarm payrolls. The BLS calls this “experimental” data but the regular posted data is known garbage.

The experimental series is LNS16000000, “Employment Adjusted to CES Concepts“.

The BLS normally releases that series in January. It is finally out today. However, the BLS has not yet released the month-by-month revisions. So, the solid red and yellow lines on my chart are not as shown.

For 2024, the BLS admits that it undercounted employment by 2 million. Instead of parsing that out in the correct months, the BLS plowed the entire adjustment into January of 2025.

For 2025, the BLS admits that it overcounted employment by 1.4 million. Instead of parsing that out in the correct months, the BLS plowed the entire adjustment into January of 2026.

All posts on foreign-born employment suffer this flaw. There are no back adjustments. We did not suddenly add 2.245 million jobs in January of 2025, all US-Born. (Difference between the dashed blue line and the yellow line)

There is no valid data at all on full vs parttime employment, on foreign born employment, etc.

BLS Notes

Effective with revised data for January 2026, updated population estimates were incorporated into the household survey.
The 2026 update was delayed by a month due to the 2025 federal government shutdown. With the release of February data, all household survey data for January 2026 were revised to incorporate the new population estimates.
In accordance with usual practice, BLS did not revise the official household survey estimates for December 2025 and earlier months.

The “usual practice” paragraph above explains why the published data series is garbage.

All standard year-over-year household data comparisons are nonsense.

It’s why I use the experimental series, not yet released for 2025.

My Charts

I will continue to use what the BLS refers to as “experimental data” in my charts because the official series household data is admitted garbage. Year-over-year household data comparisons are simply wrong.

When the BLS releases the full experimental details, I will update the lead chart.

Meanwhile, my lead chart, while the best anyone can do, is still inaccurate.

Monthly Job Report Details

Nonfarm Payroll: -92,000 to 158,466,000 – Establishment Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +90,000 to 274,766,000
Civilian Labor Force: +18,000 to 170,483,000 – Household Survey
Participation Rate: -0.1 to 62.0% – Household Survey
Employment:-185,000 to 162,912,000 – Household Survey
Unemployment: +203,000 to 7,571,000 – Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 4.4% – Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: +72,000 to 104,283,000 – Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: -0.2 to 7.9% – Household Survey

To highlight the nonsense, last month the BLS reported the labor force at 171,882,00. This month the BLS reports the labor force rose by 18,000 to 170,483,000.

Last month the BLS reported employment rose was 164,520,000. This month the BLS says employment fell by 185,000 to 162,912,000.

Last month, employment was overstated by about 1.4 million +- more huge revisions.

Nonfarm Payrolls Change by Sector

Nonfarm Payrolls Change by Sector in Thousands

Nonfarm Payrolls: -92
Manufacturing: -12
Construction: -11
Leisure and Hospitality: -27
Private Education and Health Care: -34
Professional and Business Services: -5
Information: -11
Financial: +10
Retail: +2
Wholesale: +6
Government: -6

Private education and health (demographic related) was impacted by strikes.

Monthly Revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 65,000, from +48,000 to -17,000.
The change for January was revised down by 4,000, from +130,000 to +126,000.
With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 69,000 lower than previously reported.

Part-Time Jobs

Involuntary Part-Time Work: -477,000 to 4,396,000
Voluntary Part-Time Work: -171,000 to 22,728,000
Total Full-Time Work: -100,000 to 134,341,000
Total Part-Time Work: -249,000 to 28,478,000
Multiple Job Holders: -352,000 to 8,371,000

The above numbers never total correctly due to the way the BLS makes seasonal adjustments. I list them as reported.

These numbers continue to be garbage.

Last month I reported full time work at 135,797,000, up by 582,000. This month it’s 134,341,000, a decline of only 100,000. Last month was overstated by about 1.4 million.

Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees rose by 0.1 at 34.3 hours.
Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.2 hours.
Average weekly hours of manufacturers rose 0.1 hours to 40.1 hours.

Hourly Earnings

This data is also frequently revised. Here are the numbers as reported this month.

Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose $0.15 to $37.32. A year ago the average wage was $35.94. That’s a gain of 3.7%.

Average hourly earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers rose $0.09 to $32.03. A year ago the average wage was $30.79. That’s a gain of 3.7%.

Those gains are reportedly beating inflation. But that’s nonsense too because the CPI does not count property taxes or homeowners’ insurance in its calculations.

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment rate seasonally adjusted, data from BLS, chart by Mish

Alternative Measures of Unemployment

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

The official unemployment rate is 4.4 percent.
U-6 is much higher at 7.9 percent.

Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. Some dropped out over Covid fears and never returned. Still others took advantage of a strong stock market and retired early.

The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement (need for Social Security income), and discouraged workers.

Birth Death Model

Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report.

The birth-death model pertains to the birth and death of corporations not individuals except by implication.

For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

Birth-Death Methodology Explained

I gave a detailed explanation of the model and why the usual calculation is wrong in my June 8, 2024 post How Much Did the BLS Birth-Death Adjustment Pad the May Jobs Report?

I repeat, do not subtract the birth-death number from the headline number.

Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey

The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number. It is based on employer reporting.
The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures employment, unemployment and other factors.

If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.

Negative Revisions

On September 9, 2025 I commented New QCEW Data Indicates More Big Negative Revisions Coming to Job Reports

The discrepancy between jobs reports and quarterly data widens again.

Sure enough. With the January 2026 report, the BLS revised nonfarm payrolls lower for last year by over 1 million jobs.

More negative revisions are coming.

Understanding the Enormous BLS Job Report Errors

For a full explanation of the lead chart, please see my December 18, 2025 post Understanding the Enormous BLS Job Report Errors, What Really Happened?

Four things: Immigration, Birth-Death Model, Response Rates, Sampling.
Incredibly Bad Standard Numbers
Many people are reporting unbelievable year-over-year numbers, then attributing the improvement to Trump.
For example, on the Benchmark adjusted chart, Employment in November 2025 was 163,741,000 and November of 2024 was 161,661,000. That’s supposedly a gain of 2.08 million.
But that entire gain occurred in January of 2025 when the BLS threw the whole adjustment into a single month.

Foreign-Born Employment Nonsense

The numbers in my charts are seasonally adjusted. Foreign born employment is not adjusted, compounding comparison errors.

And we have no BLS revised data for foreign born employment. So, all such foreign and US-born comparisons with BLS data remain garbage.

A second major problem with foreign-born employment is the BLS makes no distinction between US citizens who were foreign born and genuine foreign workers.

Final Thoughts

The annual benchmarks are posted but the experimental, far more accurate detail isn’t.

All the household data is flat out wrong.

Do not make month-over-month or year-over-year comparisons on household data.

The best series is the “experimental” data but the BLS is again delayed.

More Huge Negative Revisions Are Coming

Q: How do we know that?
A: For details, please see my February 27, 2026 post BLS Private Payrolls for 2025 Q2 Overstated by ~847,000