Non-Farm Payrolls At 161k – Small Miss, Strong Wages At 0.4%

A strong jobs report in the US despite a miss on the headline number: 161K. There was a nice upwards revision and the unemployment rate at 4.9%. Wages are up 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y, the fastest wage growth since 2009.

The USD is stronger. — more coming

The US was expected to report a gain of 175K jobs in October, up from 156K in September (before revisions). Wages were predicted to rise by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% and the unemployment rate was expected to tick down from 5% to 4.9%, a number that has political implications.

The US dollar was somewhat on the back foot ahead of the elections. See the full guide for trading the elections.

October NFP Data (updating)

• Non-Farm Payrolls:  TBA (exp. +175K, last 156K before revisions)
• Average Hourly Earnings TBA (exp. +0.3% m/m, last month +0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y)
• Revisions: TBA 
• Participation Rate: TBA   (62.9% last month )
• Unemployment Rate: TBA  (exp.4.9%, last month 5% before revisions)
• Private Sector: TBA  (ADP showed 147K).
• Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): TBA  (previous: 9.7%).
• Employment to population ratio: TBA  (previous: 59.8%)
• Average workweek: TBA  (last month: 34.4).

NFP Currency Reaction

• EUR/USD traded around 1.1110, under the strong resistance at 1.1125.
• GBP/USD was around 1.2495, still thrilled by its Super Thursday.
• USD/JPY drifted under 103 on election fear.
• USD/CAD traded around 1.3425 and it had its own jobs report.
• AUD/USD was around 0.7685, around the top of the recent range.
• NZD/USD was at 0.7320. The kiwi enjoyed a superb jobs report in New Zealand.