TLDR
NIO reports Q2 2026 earnings on September 1, before the US market opens.
Q2 deliveries hit 107,658 vehicles, up 49.4% year-on-year but below its own guidance of 110,000-115,000 units.
Analysts expect a loss of 7 cents per share on revenues of $4.78 billion, a big improvement from a 32-cent loss a year ago.
A return to non-GAAP profitability for a third straight quarter is the key thing investors are watching.
NIO stock is currently trading around $4.38, down 14% year to date.
NIO stock sits at $4.38 heading into its Q2 2026 earnings report on Tuesday, September 1. The release comes before the US market opens, with a conference call at 8:00 am Eastern Time.
The stock has had a volatile year. It bottomed at $3.14 in early 2025, then surged to $6.87 in April after NIO posted its first-ever quarterly net profit. That gain was quickly followed by a return to a net loss in Q1 2026, which sent the stock sliding again.
The Q4 2025 net profit triggered an immediate 20% jump in the stock. Over the following weeks, it climbed to a 45.6% gain. The Q1 2026 net loss reversed that quickly.
That pattern puts a lot of weight on Tuesday’s report.
The Wall Street consensus estimate is a loss of 7 cents per share on revenue of $4.78 billion. That would represent an 80% jump in revenue year-on-year and a big improvement from the 32-cent loss reported in Q2 2025.
Deliveries in Q2 came in at 107,658 vehicles, up 49.4% year-on-year. That number fell short of NIO’s own guidance range of 110,000 to 115,000 units. April was the weak month at 29,356 deliveries, but May and June recovered to 37,705 and 40,597 units respectively.
Profitability Is the Real Test
Deutsche Bank said in early June it expected NIO to remain profitable on a non-GAAP basis in Q2, driven by higher-margin SUV models. It estimated non-GAAP net income of around 180 million yuan.
In Q1 2026, NIO reported adjusted operating profit of 66.8 million yuan and an overall gross margin of 19.0%, its highest in four years. Revenue surged 112.2% year-on-year to 25.53 billion yuan.
NIO has beaten EPS estimates in three of the past four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 53.3%.
Vehicle margins are expected to dip to 17-18% in Q2, down from 18.8% in Q1. The company flagged that rising costs for memory chips, lithium carbonate, battery materials, copper and aluminum would put pressure on margins.
What the Product Mix Looks Like
The third-generation ES8 accounted for 31% of Q2 deliveries with 33,474 units. The new ES9 contributed 11,703 units after launching on May 28. Firefly delivered 17,589 vehicles, and ONVO hit 29,124 units, up 70.5% year-on-year.
NIO’s trailing twelve-month revenue now stands at $14.3 billion. Total deliveries for the first half of 2026 reached 191,123 vehicles, up 67.4% year-on-year.
The company now operates more than 3,900 battery swap stations and 28,000 charging points. NIO trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.5, below peers Li Auto and XPeng.
Investors will also watch management guidance for Q3 deliveries, revenue, and any update on the full-year profitability target.
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