NFP: 222K jobs but wages miss with 0.2% – USD falls

The US economy gained no less than 222K jobs in June, better than expected. However, wages rise by only 0.2% and with a downwards revision.

The US dollar initiall rose but is now falling.

The US was expected to report a gain of around 180K jobs in June, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. More importantly, wages carried expectations of 0.3% m/m after 0.2% last time. Y/y, wages rose by 2.5%, stuck.

June 2017 NFP Data (updated)

• Non-Farm Payrolls:  TBA  (exp. +175K last 138K before revisions)
• Average Hourly Earnings TBA (exp. +0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y, last month 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y)
• Revisions: TBA (-66K  last time).
• Participation Rate: TBA  (62.7% last month )
• Unemployment Rate: TBA  (exp.4.3%, last month 4.3%)
• Private Sector: TBA  (ADP showed 158K).
• Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): TBA  (previous: 8.6%).
• Employment to population ratio: TBA (previous: 60%)
• Average workweek: TBA (last month: 34.4).

NFP Currency Reaction

• EUR/USD traded around 1.1420, helped by the upbeat ECB minutes.
• GBP/USD was under 1.29 after weak UK data: trade, manufacturing, and housing all disappointed in the UK.
• USD/JPY continued riding higher along the uptrend support level, around 113.70.
• USD/CAD traded around 1.2980, bouncing higher as oil prices slipped once again. Canada releases its own jobs report at the same time.
• AUD/USD is around 0.76. The RBA hit the Aussie earlier this week.

NFP Background

Indicators leading into the event were mixed: while soft data such as the ISM surveys were upbeat, ADP data was weak and all in all, inflation is weaker.