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New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu downgraded Apple (AAPL) to Sell from Neutral with a $90 price target.
The iPhone 12 looks to have been "the second best-ever received iPhone," after the iPhone 6, but the current super-cycle has brought forward demand and the next iPhone line-up is likely a "12S" type with limited innovation, argues Ferragu.
Given that he expects consumers to spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens, Ferragu sees "material downside risk" for an iPhone 12S "downcycle" and models iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M unit range in FY22, which compares to consensus at 234M phones.
Consensus calls for shipments to be up 2% against FY21, which would "imply the 12S would be the most appealing iPhone in history" and he thinks that "appears very unlikely," the analyst added.
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