New Jobless Claims Rise To 326K, Higher Than Forecast

The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. The 326,000 new claims number was an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's 310,000 (revised from 311,000). The less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average, which is usually a better indicator of the trend, rose by 500, now at 318,500.

Here is the opening of the official statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending March 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 326,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 310,000. The 4-week moving average was 319,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average of 319,250. 

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent for the week ending March 22, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 22 was 2,836,000, an increase of 22,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,814,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,842,250, a decrease of 13,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,855,750.

Today's seasonally adjusted number at 326K came in above the Investing.com forecast of 317K.

Here is a close look at the data over the past few years (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession and the volatility in recent months.

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As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

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Occasionally I see articles critical of seasonal adjustment, especially when the non-adjusted number better suits the author's bias. But a comparison of these two charts clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data, and the 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change in the second chart (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

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Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, a 52-week moving average gives a better sense of the secular trends. I've added a linear regression through the data. We can see that this metric continued to fall below the long-term trend stretching back to 1968.

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A Four-Year Comparison

Here is an overlay of the past three calendar years and the beginning of 2013 using the 4-week moving average. The purpose is to show the relative annual slopes since the peak in the spring of 2009. Last year (blue line at the bottom) hit a trough at the end of September. It then zigzagged higher to the end of the year. This year (the red series) started off with a decline, then hovered in a narrow range for eight weeks, trended lower for three weeks and now has paused at essentially the same level as last week. This indicator is still 13,500 above its interim low set at the end of October 2013.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see my recent commentaryWhat Do Weekly Unemployment Claims Tell us About Recession Risk? Here is a snapshot from that analysis.

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For a broader view of unemployment, see the latest update in my monthly series Unemployment and the Market Since 1948.