New Jobless Claims At 281K, Slightly Better Than Forecast

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 268,000 to 267,000. The 4-week moving average was 282,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since June 3, 2000 when it was 281,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 285,500 to 285,250. 

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. [See full report]

Today's seasonally adjusted 281K was slightly better than the Investing.com forecast of 285K. The four-week moving average at 282,250. The BLS press release claims that this is the lowest since June 3, 2000. However, the complete data series in the St. Louis Federal Reserve repository (FRED) puts the interim low at 279,000 in early November of last year. The latest four-week moving average is 3,250 above the November 2014 moving average trough.

Here is a close look at the data over the past few years (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession and the volatility in recent months.

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As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

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The headline BLS data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like. See the chart below, which clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

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Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data. We can see that this metric continues to fall below the long-term trend stretching back to 1968.

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Annual Comparisons

Here is a calendar-year overlay since 2009 using the 4-week moving average. The purpose is to compare the annual slopes since the peak in the spring of 2009. The latest data point is off its post-recession low set in early November of last year.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see my recent commentaryWhat Do Weekly Unemployment Claims Tell us About Recession Risk? Here is a snapshot from that analysis.

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For a broader view of unemployment, see the latest update in my monthly series Unemployment and the Market Since 1948.