"Soft", survey and optimism-based, data may (still) be euphoric, but when it comes to "hard", actual economic data, moments ago the Census reported the latest disappointment when it comes to New Home Sales, which rose to 555K in January, missing expectations of 571K, and up 3.7% from a downward revised 535K in December. The data for all three prior months was revised lower (Dec from 536 to 535), November (598 to 575 and October 571 to 568), as US housing remains unable to capitalize on so-called economic recent strength.
More troubling, however, is that one decade after the last housing peak, new-home sales are well below half their peak hit in 2005.
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Despite the miss, both New and Existing home sales continue to rise, although if mortgage applications are any indication, sales of housing are due for a sharp pullback in coming months.
Finally, what is notable is that while the Median Home Price dipped in January from $316,200 to $312,900, it was still 7.4% higher compared to a year ago, suggesting that somehow many Americans can still afford to keep chasing offers even without the benefit of new mortgages, which for us is a big red flag, that the Census Bureau is largely goal seeking trends and numbers, if only for the time being.
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