The Bloomberg consensus was 728,000 vs actual 587,000. So, this was not expected.
The Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction Report for January 2026 shows a decline in sales of 17.6 percent.
This is the lowest new home sales since November of 2022.
New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in January 2026 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 587,000.
This is 17.6 percent (±13.3 percent) below the December 2025 rate of 712,000, and is 11.3 percent (±15.6 percent) below the January 2025 rate of 662,000.
The margins of error in these reports are high. The Census Bureau does not have a lot of confidence in their numbers, and neither do I.
New Home Sales Long Term
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply
The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January 2026 was 476,000. This is 0.4 percent (±1.2 percent) above the December 2025 estimate of 474,000, and is 4.0 percent (±5.1 percent) below the January 2025 estimate of 496,000.
This represents a supply of 9.7 months at the current sales rate.
The months’ supply is 21.3 percent (±18.2 percent) above the December 2025 estimate of 8.0 months, and is 7.8 percent (±21.3 percent) above the January 2025 estimate of 9.0 months.
Sales Price
Sales Price The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2026 was $400,500. This is 4.5 percent (±8.0 percent) below the December 2025 price of $419,200, and is 6.8 percent (±8.4 percent) below the January 2025 price of $429,600.
The average sales price of new houses sold in January 2026 was $499,500. This is 5.9 percent (±7.9 percent) below the December 2025 price of $530,900, and is 3.6 percent (±8.2 percent) below the January 2025 price of $518,200.
New Home Sales vs Existing Home Sales
Reflections on Affordability
Homes are not affordable.
Q: How do we know that?
A: New home sales are very weak. And existing-home sales are weak.
Existing-Home Sales vs Mortgage Rates
Falling mortgage rates did not do much for either existing-home sales or new home sales.
And mortgage rates are headed back up.
Mortgage News Daily reports an average 30-year fixed rate of 6.43 percent today, up from the low of 6.0 percent on February 27, 2026.
Trump’s Two Pledges on Housing
In case you missed it, please see my January 30, 2026 post: Dear Zoomers, Trump Says He “Wants to Drive Up Housing Prices”
Somehow, I doubt Gen Z will like this message.
The economic illiteracy of this president is stunning. He promises to keep home prices high and simultaneously make them more affordable.
Related Posts
March 10, 2026: Existing Home Sales Stagnant for Over Three Years Despite Falling Mortgage Rates
Home prices are still too unaffordable.
March 6, 2026: Nonfarm Payrolls Decline by 92,000 in February, Household Data Is Garbage
Last month the BLS reported employment rose was 164,520,000. This month the BLS says employment fell by 185,000 to 162,912,000.
Last month, employment was overstated by about 1.4 million +- more huge revisions.
It’s hard to buy a home when you don’t even have a job.
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