Negative GDP Growth In Q1?

Image Source: Pexels

GDPNow as of today:

Here’s a picture of the level of GDP implied by these nowcasts and tracking forecasts.

Figure 1: GDP (black), GDPNow of 4/1 (red triangle), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports  (pink square), NY Fed (blue square), Goldman Sachs (inverted green triangle), Survey of Professional Forecasters (light blue), all in billion Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, NY Fed, Goldman Sachs and authors calculations.

Betting is now for 0% growth in Q1.

As noted on numerous occasions, GDP is not a primary input into the NBER’s decisions regarding recession dates. However, this graph on odds is of interest.

 

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