Natural gas prices were able to rally decently Friday off of more cold weather risk in the medium-term (and a bit more in the long-term, too) but they now appear stuck right between resistance and support, making trading on Monday especially important. The prompt month chart below shows how they bounced off the 30-DMA today.
Gains on the day were primarily near the front of the strip as further heating demand expectations were priced in, though into the end of the day we did see prices pull back a bit.
This helped the X7/Z7 spread recover somewhat Friday after it plummeted early in the week on realizations that the first cold shot in the medium-range would not be all that sustained.
Traders are now turning their attention past this one medium-term cold shot to the middle of November, but model guidance is not providing them many clues just yet. For example, the American CFSv2 (one of the primary climate models) flipped overnight with its November forecast.
The Climate Prediction Center seems to see more warm than cold risks in the 3-4 Week time period.
This somewhat matches with their latest forecast for November as well.
Yet we are not entirely convinced, as there remain a number of other risks on the table that may not be fully accounted for in modeling guidance and longer-range forecasts.
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