Concerns about storage levels that are now below the 5-year range helped push natural gas prices to new weekly highs, with September prices continuing higher by a bit over a percent after yesterday's rally.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The fall and winter strip got more into this continuation as well, though J-V9 lagged.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The result was a more pronounced bounce in the March/April 2019 H/J spread than we have tended to see over the last few weeks.
(Click on image to enlarge)
After a long week we finally got to test the $2.85 level we had been watching since our Monday Weekly Natural Gas Report, but not before $2.75 support briefly gave out.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The week was more volatile than recent weeks, with a significant cooling trend seen on medium-range weather model guidance earlier in the week and a slight bullish surprise with the EIA data release yesterday as well. The result was that the average daily trading range finally began to recover from recent lows.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stronger cash prices helped keep the front of the strip from moving too much lower ahead of the bullish EIA print as well.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Meanwhile, model guidance has remained mixed but continued to err to the warmer side, with our Morning Update this morning showing a 15-day GWDD forecast that was almost exactly the same as the one last evening.
(Click on image to enlarge)
With increased volatility comes increased opportunity, and we see quite a number of conflicting fundamental factors that are likely to keep prices moving next week.
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.