The September natural gas contract fell back a cent today, trading in another narrow range ahead of the weekend.
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On the day J-V9 was a bit more firm, as was the fall strip with the March H9 contract the weakest.
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The result was a second day of the H/J March/April 2019 spread falling back.
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In our Morning Update for clients today we introduced a new historical key spread screener, which looks at how current spreads along the natural gas strip compare to past years.
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This complements our other analysis along the natural gas strip and custom weather forecasts, which today indicated a modest rise in overnight GWDDs.
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In our Morning Update we also outlined that we expected cash prices to not be as strong given cooler weather into the weekend, and thus looked for weakness at the front of the strip today. Sure enough, that came early this morning when prices briefly tested our support range from $2.9-$2.92, confirming the slightly lower risks we saw in our Afternoon Update yesterday too.
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Headed into the weekend traders are keeping one eye on balance and the other on weather, as forecasts jostle back and forth between hotter and cooler trends in the center of the country. Our Pre-Close Update today showed some of the mixed trends in long-range Climate Prediction Center updates today.
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