Nasdaq 100 Elliott Wave Weekly Update - Sunday, Oct 18

Michael Filighera

Technical Analyst & Trader • Oct 18, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT

The Nasdaq 100 is nearing the end of its primary third wave, signaling a fourth wave correction before potential new highs

In this week's update, I stated that the market remained in the finishing stages of a primary third wave and was heading toward a primary fourth wave.

I reviewed the long-term chart and noted that the current correction was necessary before the market could eventually return to new all-time highs in a primary fifth wave.

On a shorter timeframe, I analyzed the current structure as a minute wave five and discussed whether the recent price action formed a contracting or expanding diagonal.

I explained that the recent sharp decline was likely a B wave driven by options expiration and gamma levels rather than fundamental data.

I noted that CPI and PPI data showed inflation remained hot, but I believe the market could still rally due to upcoming earnings from companies like Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and SpaceX (SPCX).

I also mentioned that the weekly expected move for the Qs suggested a potential further decline, which would align with an expanding diagonal pattern.

I concluded by noting that geopolitical factors and the upcoming midterm election could also influence market direction.

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