Nasdaq 100 Elliott Wave Daily Update - Thursday, Feb 19

Technical Analyst & Trader • Feb 20, 2026 at 12:24 AM EST

Elliott Wave analysis warns the Nasdaq-100 may face a sharp downside move if key 24,000 support breaks, with GDP, PCE and options expiration acting as catalysts. A final bullish wave to new highs remains possible after a corrective decline.

In this video, Michael Filighera provides an Elliott Wave outlook for the Nasdaq-100, noting the market may still be in a minute wave-four correction with downside risk before a potential final rally.

Key points:

Major economic data (GDP, PCE, PMI, consumer sentiment) could trigger volatility and a risk-off move.
A weaker-than-expected GDP reading could spark a sharp selloff and recession fears.
If Nasdaq breaks 24,000 support, downside could accelerate quickly toward lower Fibonacci targets.
Despite near-term bearish risk, the broader structure could still allow one more bullish fifth wave to new highs above prior peaks.
Options expiration, gamma positioning, and potential Supreme Court tariff decisions add to uncertainty and volatility.

Overall, the outlook is cautious in the short term with downside risk, but still open to a larger bullish move after the correction completes in.

Video Length: 00:24:02

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