Nvidia accounts for roughly 8.4% of the Nasdaq-100, making it the index’s largest single component. That means Wednesday’s earnings could move the entire tech benchmark.
KEY DRIVERS FOR NAS100
• Nvidia earnings are the main event
Nvidia reports Q2 FY2027 results after the US market close on Wednesday, 26 August. The company has guided for revenue of around $91 billion, plus or minus 2%, while consensus is closer to $93 billion with EPS near $2.09 — almost double the level a year earlier.
• AI demand and guidance matter most
Investors will focus on data-center and AI revenue, but forward guidance could be even more important. The key question is whether demand remains exceptional or begins to normalize after the recent investment boom.
• Options point to a large move
The options market is pricing an Nvidia move of roughly 6.8% after earnings. Given the stock’s weight in the Nasdaq-100, that could translate into a move of around 0.6% in the index before accounting for broader market reactions.
• Expectations are already extremely high
Nvidia shares have fallen after each of the company’s last four earnings reports, despite results often beating expectations. That highlights the risk of a “good, but not good enough” reaction when valuations and expectations are elevated.
THE MACRO CATALYST: CORE PCE
US core PCE for July will be released earlier on Wednesday and will set the macro tone before Nvidia reports.
Bloomberg Economics estimates core PCE increased around 0.23% month over month. Portfolio-management fees may have added significantly to the headline figure, meaning the data could overstate underlying inflation.
Other measures, including trimmed-mean inflation gauges, point to softer underlying price pressures, with many running close to 0.1% month over month.
A relatively benign PCE report would support expectations for the Fed to remain on hold in September and could provide a more constructive backdrop for technology stocks ahead of Nvidia’s results.
KEY EVENTS
• US Core PCE, July: Wednesday, 26 August — 12:30 GMT
• Nvidia Q2 FY2027 earnings: Wednesday, 26 August — after the US market close, around 20:20 GMT
• Nvidia implied earnings move: approximately 6.8%
TECHNICALS
NAS100 is consolidating below its 21-day and 50-day moving averages as investors position ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. A strong report and softer inflation data could provide the catalyst for a breakout, while disappointing guidance or a hotter PCE print would increase the risk of another leg lower.
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