My Inflation Data Expectation

Yields are going to retreat, and inflation data to the rescue ...

S&P 500 with Russell 2000 didn't like the incoming bad consumer data that I predicted Thursday, yet the 500-strong index proved really resilient. There was no appetite to sell long-dated Treasuries either, and Sep rate cut odds barely retreated (from 50% to 48.6%). With Kashkari and Powell messages diverging this much (remember the latest two FOMC meetings being on the dovish side in spite of inflation data proving their stickiness), what are the credit markets saying about the upcoming inflation data aftermath?

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

What kind of rescue are the coming inflation data be – can they reasonably further the May resilience in bonds? Thus far, the stock market allowed for nice intraday opportunities capture, and saw tech not really lead to the upside.


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