Since everybody is playing, here's my summary 2020 outlook. As I have discussed before, prognostications, though often accurate, have difficulty providing precise enough time frames to trade. Because of that, I think investors should consider different scenarios, from most likely to least likely, and have a game plan for each.
Our best bet as investors is to understand the most important economic and financial factors, then control our emotions and be willing to adjust as markets move. Here's my summary look at 2020 with some key points. I will discuss several of the key points more in depth in coming pieces.
Summary
- If euphoria signals market tops, then it seems we are about to get that delusion.
- Political uncertainty is a bigger piece of the puzzle than most are giving credit for.
- Valuations already are stretched and further stretching can't be supported by easy money alone.
- The trade deals will have little impact because AI and machine learning are far more important factors on global trade than politicians who are fighting yesterday's battles.
- A first half rally will be followed by a second half correction that could devolve into a very fast moving bear market in Q4.
Read this article in its entirety at Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4313547-2020-outlook-euphoria-to-despair
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