Cotton futures were lower on speculative selling after the market failed to penetrate strong resistance areas near 7200 December last week. Futures are now likely to test support at 6800 December and could move closer to additional support near 6700 and 6600 December. The export sales report was very strong on Thursday, but the strong demand provided only limited support as futures have been higher, anyway.
Ideas of crop losses in the Southeast are around, but ideas are that any losses in that region will be made up by better yields in the Delta and Texas. The weather has turned good. No rains are expected in Texas or into the Delta and Southeast. The crop should mature and be harvested as rapidly as possible.
Pakistan is producing less this year due to smaller planted area and will import from India if the political situation between both countries will permit this. Prices are starting to move lower as the new harvest in India hits the market. China imported 60,384 tons of Cotton in September, up 19% from last year. Calendar year to date imports are now 654,214 tons, down 44% from last year.
Overnight News
The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average above normal. Texas will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 68.01 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 28,367 bales, from 28,367 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 6830, 6640, and 6370 December. Support is at 6860, 6850, and 6800 December, with resistance of 7020, 7070, and 7170 December.
DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Oct 21
Data quoted in bales for week ending Oct 20. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 232,249 442,739 Southwest 165,625 1,232,846
NC 17,099 22,781 Okla 13,965 16,122
SC 13,021 19,404 Texas 151,660 1,216,724
Ga 136,512 267,908 Kansas – –
Ala 59,834 126,263
Fla 5,783 6,383 Far West 29,080 56,760
Va – – NM – –
Ariz 13,513 36,377
Delta 360,828 933,967 Calif 15,567 20,383
Miss 93,403 252,404
Tenn 75,680 154,097 Pima 15,661 17,284
Mo 63,328 134,970 Other 0 0
Ark 91,006 270,692 Total US 803,443 2,683,596
La 37,411 121,804 pct tenderable 69.8 69.7
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2016
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 347,398
: Positions :
: 95,032 14,855 84,439 70,526 228,326 78,792 9,726 328,789 337,347: 18,609 10,051
: Changes from: October 11, 2016 (Change in open interest: 10,387) :
: 7,902 -2,626 2,716 63 9,073 -1,396 1,097 9,284 10,260: 1,103 127
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.4 4.3 24.3 20.3 65.7 22.7 2.8 94.6 97.1: 5.4 2.9
: Total Traders: 322 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 156 54 92 66 71 22 11 283 195:
FCOJ
FCOJ was higher on what appeared to be speculative buying. The buying accelerated as futures moved through the weekly high and nearby resistance areas. There are no storms forecast for the state. Lower production is expected in the reports due to the greening disease. The Florida harvest will be starting, and prices could remain lower. Growing conditions this year have been good. Irrigation has been used. Fruit is starting to turn color in many parts of the state. Fruit sizes are reported to be variable. It has also been dry in Sao Paulo. The dry weather should aid any remaining harvest to be done, but flowering for the next crop is becoming delayed. Rains have fallen in some areas, so some flowering should be reported this week.
Overnight News
Florida should see dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures. USDA said that FCOJ in Cold Storage is now 603,140 million pounds, from 653,114 million pounds in August and 757,074 million pounds last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 197.00, 191.00, and 187.00 November, with resistance at 203.00, 204.00, and 206.00 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2016
: Reportable Positions :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 20,091 :
: Positions :
: 5,027 14,159 927 161 0 4,872 451 136 3,243 358 3,281 :
: Changes from: October 11, 2016 :
: 1,069 -338 2 -40 0 -770 4 -41 -549 -346 -85 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.0 70.5 4.6 0.8 0.0 24.2 2.2 0.7 16.1 1.8 16.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 79 :
: 17 22 . . 0 19 4 . 15 11 11 :
COFFEE
Futures in New York were a little higher and found support from the continuing rally in Robusta futures in London. The market has been hearing about better rains in southern Minos in Brazil, but it is still very dry on Espírito Santo. The Robusta production will be low again, and Robusta prices are currently very high in the country. Wire reports now say that Robusta prices are above R$500.00 and above Arabica prices in Brazil.
Local roasters are adding more Arabica to blends, but the country is still exporting in large volumes. Colombia is also exporting strong volumes, and this has been a problem for Central American sellers who hope to sell for higher differentials. They are offering both old crop and new crop beans, but are having a hard time finding good bids because there is plenty of Coffee of cheap prices from other origins right now. Most of the demand for Central American coffees has been for better quality beans from the 2015-16 crop, mostly HG and SHG. These coffees are getting low bids. Low bids are starting to appear for new crop coffees, as well.
Overnight News
Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.276 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 143.99 ct/lb. Brazil will get episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends
Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 161.00 December. Support is at 155.00, 153.00, and 151.00 December, and resistance is at 157.00, 159.00 and 161.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2150 November. Support is at 2080, 2050, and 2020 November, and resistance is at 2130, 2160, and 2190 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 185.00, 182.00, and 178.00 December, and resistance is at 190.00, 193.00, and 196.00 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2016
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
: Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 233,858
: Positions :
: 56,879 17,839 59,674 60,839 144,054 44,005 5,021 221,398 226,588: 12,460 7,270
: Changes from: October 11, 2016 (Change in open interest: 9,177) :
: 4,390 -3,344 4,304 -990 6,443 1,710 1,101 9,415 8,504: -237 673
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.3 7.6 25.5 26.0 61.6 18.8 2.1 94.7 96.9: 5.3 3.1
: Total Traders: 428 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 157 93 138 116 124 22 6 373 298:
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/18/2016
Reportable Positions
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
180,542 54,245 95,929 7,670 12,445 6,831
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 30.0% 53.1% 4.2% 6.9% 3.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
187 53 50 11 9 9
Reportable Positions
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
38,315 4,457 19,374 12,023 2,679 35,370
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
21.2% 2.5% 10.7% 6.7% 1.5% 19.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
60 14 19 14 9 21
Nonreportable Positions
Long Short
6,715 3,458
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.7% 1.9%
SUGAR
Futures closed a Little higher, but futures remained below strong resistance areas on the charts. Bullish traders will need to push the market higher very soon or more selling could develop. Short term trends are starting to turn down. It seems that traders need something to push the market higher once again and have little in the way of news to support new buying.
It looks very much like the lower production estimates are now part of the price, and there has not been much demand news. The demand still seems good enough to take on all world production, and forecasts for deficit production against demand continue. The demand seems best from the Middle East and north Africa. Chinese demand should be less as the government moves to sell supplies from storage.
A smaller crop for Brazil due to uneven precipitation is still in the forecast, and there could be smaller crops coming from India and Thailand as well as those countries have suffered from uneven monsoon rains. Southern Brazil saw some heavy rains last week. Southeast Asia is getting good rains. China imported 497,493 tons of Sugar in September, down 24% from last year.
Calendar year to date imports are now 2.6 million tons, down 30% from last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers each day. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2090, 1950, and 1900 March. Support is at 2240, 2220, and 2130 March, and resistance is at 2280, 2300, and 2320 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 586.00, 582.00, and 580.00 December, and resistance is at 596.00, 602.00, and 606.00 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2016
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
: Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,079,745
: Positions :
: 294,885 27,694 237,912 233,899 741,190 214,584 34,503 981,280 1,041,299: 98,465 38,446
: Changes from: October 11, 2016 (Change in open interest: 2,262) :
: -6,698 4,592 1,281 7,973 -1,850 2,956 400 5,513 4,423: -3,251 -2,161
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.3 2.6 22.0 21.7 68.6 19.9 3.2 90.9 96.4: 9.1 3.6
: Total Traders: 245 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 36 69 71 74 22 11 220 166:
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/18/2016
Reportable Positions
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
94,582 54,739 75,964 5,848 5,852 2,907
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.9% 80.3% 6.2% 6.2% 3.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
132 40 52 7 7 9
Reportable Positions
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
17,474 846 3,534 634 1,130 3,115
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
18.5% 0.9% 3.7% 0.7% 1.2% 3.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
37 6 9 3 4 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,331 1,234
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.7% 1.3%
COCOA
General Comments: Futures markets were a little higher. The US grind data for the quarter was positive and was the reason for the price strength. The Asian grind data was also strong as Asian demand seems to be recovering now. However, the European demand seen two weeks ago was not as strong as expected. Overall trends remain down on the weekly charts. Daily charts show that a short term sideways trade has developed. The market is moving to the new crop, and the fundamentals are different. The weather in West Africa has featured a lot of rain, and West African production in the end should be stronger than the last couple of years due to the better rains that have supported tree growth and condition. There is talk that production and demand can be roughly in line this year, but it is also possible that production will be bigger than demand in the end. The growing conditions in just about all major production areas have been better than in the previous year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.782 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2680, 2630, and 2610 December, with resistance at 2730, 2750, and 2790 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2210, 2190, and 2160 December, with resistance at 2260, 2280, and 2290 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2016
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 316,538
: Positions :
: 66,677 52,767 64,584 133,102 161,505 38,071 26,254 302,435 305,110: 14,103 11,428
: Changes from: October 11, 2016 (Change in open interest: 10,814) :
: 360 -901 5,066 856 3,370 2,959 3,318 9,241 10,853: 1,573 -39
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.1 16.7 20.4 42.0 51.0 12.0 8.3 95.5 96.4: 4.5 3.6
: Total Traders: 237 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 74 73 45 42 21 9 187 166:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/18/2016
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
373,317 192,632 202,086 13,471 34,586 31,543
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 51.6% 54.1% 3.6% 9.3% 8.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
157 50 40 10 9 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,725 7,525 42,767 6,913 2,309 49,802
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.2% 2.0% 11.5% 1.9% 0.6% 13.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
33 15 21 17 11 24
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,465 2,699
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.5% 0.7%
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