Morning Call For November 3, 2015

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.29%) are down -0.16% on some give back from Monday's rally to a 2-3/4 month high. European stocks are up +0.02% as a +1.04% rally in Dec crude oil (CLZ15 +0.76%) boosts energy producers while weakness in European banks limits gains. UBS is down over 4% after it postponed the date on when it expects to return to profitability and Standard Chartered fell over 9% after it reported an unexpected Q3 quarterly loss of -$139 million and said it will raise $5.1 billion in a rights offer. Also, Volkswagen AG is down over 3% after U.S. regulators said that after testing they found other Volkswagen models, including Porsche, have equipment to alter emissions systems. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong +0.89%, China -0.25%, Taiwan +1.14%, Australia +1.42%, Singapore +0.85%, South Korea +0.61%, India +0.12%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.27%) is up +0.24%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.42%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11%.

Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 -0.01%) are unchanged.

According to the Xinhua News Agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China's annual growth should be no less than 6.5% in the next 5 years in order to realize the goal to double 2010 gross domestic product and per capita income by 2020. He added that it's still possible to maintain growth at about 7%, the government’s current goal, despite the many uncertainties facing the economy.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct New York ISM (expected +1.2 to 45.7, Sep -6.6 to 44.5), (2) Sep factory orders (expected -0.9%, Aug -1.7% and-0.8% ex transportation), and (3) Oct total vehicle sales (expected 17.70 million, Sep 18.07 million).

There are 27 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Kellogg (consensus $0.84), ADM (0.70), Emerson Electric (0.97), McGraw Hill Financial (1.06), CBS (0.81).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Revance Therapeutics (RVNC).

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Gabelli & Company Automotive Aftermarket Symposium on Tue, Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference on Tue-Wed, Citi China Investor Conference on Wed, Citi Industrials Conference on Wed, Citi Global Health Care Conference on Thu, Needham Next Generation Storage Networking Conference on Thu, Bernstein Technology Innovation Summit on Thu-Fri, BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference on Thu-Fri.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM +1.36%) reported Q3 EPS of 60 cents, below consensus of 70 cents.

Allstate (ALL -0.13%) rose 1.3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 operating EPS of $1.52. better than consensus of $1.32.

King Digital Entertainment Plc (KING +3.88%) jumped 14% in pre-market trading after it agreed to a $5.9 billion takeover offer from Activision Blizzard.

AMC Entertainment (AMC +0.47%) slid nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 12 cents, below consensus of 16 cents.

Avis Budget (CAR +4.73%) sank over 9% in after-hours trading after it cut guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to $3.10-$3.25 from an Aug estimate of $3.15-$3.45, below consensus of $3.36

Fitbit (FIT +0.64%) slipped nearly 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 24 cents, higher than consensus of 10 cents, but then announced a secondary offering of 7 million shares of common stock.

Luminex (LMNX +5.71%) climbed over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 15 cents, better than consensus of 10 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 revenue to $235 million-$238 million from a previous estimate of $232 million-$236 million, higher than consensus of $234.7 million.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH +1.92%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 29 cents, below consensus of 30 cents, but said comparable sales for the first four weeks of Q4 are up +5.0% y/y.

American International Group (AIG +1.08%) slid 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 operating EPS of 52 cents, well below consensus of $1.03.

Nautilus (NLS +0.35%) jumped over 11% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 continuing operations EPS of 12 cents, higher than consensus of 9 cents.

Qualys (QLYS +1.61%) slumped nearly 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 19 cents, higher than consensus of 13 cents, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 revenue to $164.1 million-$164.6 million from an Aug estimate of $165.0 million-$166.5 million, below consensus of $165.6 million.

Alon USA Energy (ALJ +2.15%) rose over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 60 cents, well above consensus of 46 cents.

SS&C Technologies (SSNC +0.40%) climbed over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 68 cents, higher than consensus of 62 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.29%) this morning are down -3.25 points (-0.16%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 +1.19%, Dow Jones +0.94%, Nasdaq +1.18%. The S&P 500 on Monday rose to a 2-3/4 month high and closed higher on positive carryover from a rally in European stocks after the Eurozone Oct Market manufacturing PMI was revised higher. Stocks also received a boost from the decline of only -0.1 point in the Oct ISM manufacturing index to 50.1, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 50.0. Health-care stocks rallied on increased M&A activity after Shire Plc bought Dyax for $5.9 billion and after reports that Pfizer is making progress in talks to buy Allergan Plc. Stocks were initially undercut by Chinese economic concerns after the China Oct manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.8, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 50.0.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ15 -0.01%) this morning are unch. Monday's closes: TYZ5 -10.00, FVZ5 -6.00. Dec T-notes on Monday fell to a 1-1/4 month low and closed lower on negative carryover from a decline in German bund prices after hawkish comments from ECB President Draghi dampened speculation the ECB will soon expand QE. T-notes were also hurt by the stronger-than-expected Oct ISM manufacturing index and by reduced safe-haven demand as stocks rallied.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.27%) this morning is up +0.234 (+0.24%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0046 (-0.42%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.13 (+0.11%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.018 (-0.02%), EUR/USD +0.0010 (+0.09%), USD/JPY +0.14 (+0.12%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on concerns that China's economy that may keep the Fed from raising interest rates after the China Oct manufacturing PMI contracted for the third straight month. In addition, EUR/USD saw strength after ECB President Draghi cooled speculation the ECB will expand QE when he said that further monetary stimulus is still an "open question."

Dec crude oil (CLZ15 +0.76%) this morning is up +48 cents (+1.04%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ15 +0.74%) is up +0.0112 (+0.81%). Monday's closes: CLZ5 -0.51 (-1.09%), RBZ5 +0.0023 (+0.17%). Dec crude oil and gasoline on Monday settled mixed. Crude oil prices was undercut by news that Russian Oct crude and gas condensate production rose +1.3% y/y to a record 10.78 million bpd. In addition, there were Chinese demand concerns after the China Oct manufacturing PMI contracted for the third straight month. Crude oil prices found support from a weaker dollar and the rally in the S&P 500 to a 2-3/4 month high.