OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.10%) this morning are down -0.13% and European stocks are down -0.13% after Monday's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers ended abruptly after Greek Finance Minister Varaoufakis refused to bow to European demands. The Eurozone finance ministers said there will be no more talks on financial support unless the Greek government requests an extension of its existing bailout program. The current aid program ends at the end of this month and failure by Greece to extend the aid could see it run out of cash by the end of next month and force it into default. Stock prices recovered from their worst levels after a gauge of German investor confidence rose to the highest in a year. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.10%, Hong Kong +0.24%, China +0.65% Taiwan and India closed for holiday, Australia -0.52%, Singapore -0.33%, South Korea +0.22%. China's Shanghai Stock Index climbed to a 2-week high ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holidays that begin tomorrow. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH15 +0.25%) is up +0.81% and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.12%) is up +0.36% at a 1-3/4 month high. Apr gold (GCJ15 -0.48%) is down -0.37%. Mar copper (HGH15 -1.06%) is down -1.06%. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.28%) is down -0.35%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.67%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.11%) are down -5.5 ticks.
The German Feb ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +4.6 to 53.0, less than expectations of +6.6 to 55.0, but still the highest in a year. The Feb ZEW survey current situation jumped +23.1 to 45.5, a much larger increase than expectations of +7.6 to 30.0 and the highest in 7 months.
Eurozone Jan new passenger car registrations rose +6.7% y/y to 999,000, the most in 10 months.
UK Jan CPI fell -0.9% m/m, more than expectations of -0.8% m/m and matched the largest monthly decline on record (data from 1988). On an annual basis, Jan CPI rose +0.3% y/y, less than expectations of +0.4% y/y and the smallest pace of increase on record.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Feb Empire manufacturing index is expected to show a small -1.45 point decline to 8.50, giving back part of the +11.18 point surge to 9.95 seen in January. Today’s Feb NAHB housing market index is expected to show a small +1 point increase to 58, reversing January’s -1 point decline. There are 13 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Waste Management (consensus $0.60), Genuine Parts (1.07), Goodyear (0.58), Medtronic (0.97), Agilent (0.41), Fossil Group (3.07). Equity conferences this week include: Consumer Analysts Group of New York Conference on Tue-Thu, and Barclays Industrial Select Conference on Wed-Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Cablevision (CVC +1.58%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Deutsche Bank reiterates a 'Sell' rating on Transocean (RIG +2.25%) and cut its price target on the stock to $6 from $16 after the company announced an 80% dividend reduction and the departure of its CEO.
Medtronic PLC (MDT +0.44%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.01, higher than consensus of 97 cents.
American Express (AXP -2.98%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Guggenheim.
Micron (MU -0.28%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Macquarie.
Wolverine World Wide (WWW +1.69%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 30 cents, right on consensus.
LyondellBasell (LYB +0.21%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Citigroup.
Nordstrom (JWN +0.05%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Barclays.
United Stationers (USTR +1.21%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 88 cents, better than consensus of 84 cents.
Vipshop (VIPS +1.68%) reported Q4 EPS of 12 cents, higher than consensus of 9 cents.
Reuters reports that Endo Intenational (ENDP +1.35%) is interested in buying Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP +2.12%) .
Elon Musk reported a 21.4% stake in SolarCity (SCTY +0.77%) .
Reuters reports that United Airlines (UAL -1.65%) will cut about 1,150 positions at 16 airports across the country.
Bloomberg reports that JetBlue will drop American Express (AXP -2.98%) in favor of MasterCard (MA -0.43%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.10%) this morning are down -2.75 points (-0.13%). The S&P 500 index on Friday climbed to a new all-time high and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.41%, Dow Jones +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.83%. Bullish factors included (1) positive carry-over from a rally in European stocks after Eurozone Q4 GDP expanded +0.3% q/q and +0.9% y/y, better than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +0.8% y/y, and (2) signs of stronger credit growth in China that may help revive the Chinese economy as China Jan new yuan loans totaled 1.47 trillion yuan, more than expectations of 1.35 trillion yuan and the most in 5-1/2 years. A negative factor was the unexpected -4.5 point decline in the Feb U.S. consumer confidence index to 93.6, weaker than expectations of unchanged at 98.1.
Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.11%) this morning are down -5.5 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday closed lower. Closes: TYH5 -6.00, FVH5 -3.50. Negative factors included (1) the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high, which curbed safe-haven demand for T-notes, and (2) optimism that Greek and European leaders will find a compromise on Greek debt negotiations, which also undercut safe-haven demand for T-notes.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.28%) this morning is down -0.331 (-0.35%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0076 (+0.67%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.28 (+0.24%). The dollar index on Friday closed little changed: Dollar index +0.107 (+0.11%), EUR/USD -0.00254 (-0.22%), USD/JPY -0.357(-0.30%). A bearish factor was the unexpected decline in Feb U.S. consumer confidence. A supportive factor was weakness in EUR/USD ahead of the Feb 16 meeting of Eurozone finance ministers to discuss a solution to Greece’s debt financing.
Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 +0.25%) this morning is up +43 cents (+0.81%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.12%) is up +0.0059 (+0.36%) at a 1-3/4 month high. Mar crude oil and Mar gasoline on Friday closed higher with Mar gasoline at a 2-month high: CLH5 +1.57 (+3.07%), RBH5 +0.0307 (+1.92%). Bullish factors included (1) the rally in the S&P 500 to a record high, which bolsters optimism in the economic outlook and energy demand, (2) the decline in U.S. operating oil rigs in the week ended Feb 13 to 1056, the fewest in 3-1/2 years, which may curb U.S. crude production, and (3) concern that the ongoing strike by United Steelworkers union who represent employees at more than 200 refineries with 10% of U.S. refining output will start to curtail gasoline and distillate production.
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