Midwest Manufacturing Malaise, Continued

Manufacturing employment in the three states that delivered the presidency to Trump is declining, continuing the trend from last month.

Figure 1: Manufacturing employment in US (blue), and aggregate of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (red), both in logs, 2018M12=0. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.

Notice, based on the data available at end July, the predicted six month non-annualized growth rate of coincident indexes (i.e, the leading indexes) indicates negative growth in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Source: Philadelphia Fed.