Metals And Miners Provided Subtle Clues Of Topping

Metals and Miners provided subtle clues of topping today, but it is unclear if this rebound has ended. Follow through lower tomorrow would be a step in the right direction.

The dollar hasn’t signaled a bottom just yet, and prices could drop a bit further. A higher close tomorrow would be the first indication of a cycle bottom. However, it would take a close above 100.20 to fully confirm a low.

Oil bounced off $47.00 yesterday, but prices were unable to follow through to the upside today. I’m lowering my stop to $50.58. Closing above the 10-day EMA would be cause for concern, and I’d take partial profits.

-US DOLLAR- The dollar hasn’t explicitly signaled a cycle low. A close above 99.75 will make a swing low and possible bottom. A close above 100.20 would confirm a cycle bottom.

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-GOLD- Prices tested the upper portion of the resistance box. A close tomorrow below $1,242 would form a swing high and potential top. However, it will take prices closing twice below the 10-day EMA ($1,233) to confirm a rebound high.

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-SILVER- Prices rallied just inside the resistance box but immediately sold off. A close below $17.40 would support a high and closing below $17.20 would confirm an end to this rebound.

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-GDX- Prices made a swing high, and $23.56 could mark the high for this rebound. However, we can’t be sure until prices have lower closes consecutively beneath the 10-day EMA.

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-GDXJ- Junior Miners closed below the 10-day EMA. Another red candle close beneath today’s close will support a rebound high at $38.57.

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-SPY- I think we will see a rebound once prices confirm an interval low. If the rebound fails to breakout above the trendline, we will probably see significant selling in April. In that case, I’d expect a test of the 200-day MA.

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-WTIC- Prices tested the $47.00 level and bounced yesterday. However, they couldn’t follow through higher today. The 10-day EMA should contain prices as they continue lower into May.

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Let’s see what tomorrow brings for precious metals.

I may initiate a short position in the S&P 500 if an opportunity presents itself. I’ll keep members advised as the chart pattern unfolds.