May Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.7% MoM

This morning's release of the May Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand was at 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.6% increase last month. It is at 6.6% year-over-year, up from 6.2% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.7% MoM, unchanged from the previous month, and is up 4.8% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.6% headline and 0.5% core.

Here is the summary of the news release on Final Demand:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in April and 1.0 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 6.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

Nearly 60 percent of the May increase in the index for final demand can be traced to a 1.5-percent rise in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services moved up 0.6 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.7 percent in May, the same as in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 5.3 percent, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in August 2014. More…

Finished Goods: Headline and Core

The BLS shifted its focus to its new "Final Demand" series in 2014, a shift we support. However, the data for these series are only constructed back to November 2009 for Headline and April 2010 for Core. Since our focus is on longer-term trends, we continue to track the legacy Producer Price Index for Finished Goods, which the BLS also includes in their monthly updates.

As this (older) overlay illustrates, the Final Demand and Finished Goods indexes are highly correlated.

FRED® Graphs ©Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. All rights reserved.

As the next chart shows, the Core Producer Price Index is far more volatile than the Core Consumer Price Index. For example, during the last recession producers were unable to pass cost increases to the consumer.