Markit Services PMI: Business Activity Growth Softens in December

The December US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 53.7 percent, down 0.8 from the final November estimate of 54.5. The Investing.com consensus was for 55.9 percent. Markit's Services PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.

Here is the opening from the latest press release:

December data signalled a solid, but softer expansion in business activity across the US service sector. Moreover, the latest upturn eased to a seven-month low. In line with the trend in output, the rate of growth in new business volumes softened slightly. Meanwhile, backlogs continued to rise and the latest expansion was the fastest for four months. Another solid rise in employment levels was linked to greater capacity pressures. On the price front, both input cost and charge inflation eased slightly. In line with softer business activity growth, the degree of optimism in the sector dipped to a 15-month low.

The seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit U.S. Services Business Activity Index registered 53.7 in December, down from 54.5 in November. The latest index was higher than the earlier ‘flash’ reading (52.4) and indicated a solid increase in business activity at US service providers. A number of panel members suggested the upturn was due to greater client demand and increased new order volumes. However, the overall rate of activity growth was the weakest since May and below the series trend. [Press Release]

Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.

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Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management, which they refer to as "Non-Manufacturing" (see our full article on this series here). Over the past year, the ISM metric has been significantly the more volatile of the two.

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The next chart uses a three-month moving average of the two rather volatile series to facilitate our understanding of the current trend. Since early in 2016, the ISM metric has shown stronger growth than the Markit counterpart. It will be interesting to see how these two indicators play out for the remainder of 2017.

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Both series weakened since 2015 and saw an uptick in the latter half of 2016. The interim three-month moving average of the Markit Services index peaked in August of 2014. The ISM index peaked in September of 2015. The two were fairly closely aligned at the beginning of 2016, but they diverged early with the Markit index signaling noticeably weaker growth.