Markit Manufacturing PMI: Growth Slows Again in September

The final September US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 51.5, down from the 52.0 August final. Today's headline number came in slightly above the Investing.com consensus of 51.4. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.

Here is the opening from the latest press release:

U.S. manufacturers signalled another moderate upturn in both production volumes and incoming new work during September, but the latest survey indicated a further loss of growth momentum from July’s recent peak. Softer overall growth was attributed to generally subdued client demand, alongside a drop in new export sales for the first time in four months. [Press Release]

Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.

Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (see our full article on this series here).

The next chart uses a three-month moving average of the two rather volatile series to facilitate our understanding of the current trend.

The two moving-average series began diverging in early 2015. The ISM index dipped into contraction in the third quarter of 2015 but then reversed directions in 2016 to its current level of modest expansion. The Markit series has trended more steady downward from its interim high early in the second half of 2014. We may be seeing a bit on an uptick in the Markit series from its interim low in May.