|
Indicator |
Weekly Level / Change |
Implication for S & P 500 |
Implication for Nifty* |
|
S & P 500 |
3265, 0.94% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
Nifty |
12257, 0.25% |
Neutral ** |
Neutral |
|
China Shanghai Index |
3092, 0.28% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
|
Gold |
1563, 0.70% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
WTIC Crude |
59.12, -6.23% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
|
Copper |
2.81, 0.83% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
Baltic Dry Index |
774, -14.66% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
|
Euro |
1.1121,- 0.35% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
|
Dollar/Yen |
109.48, 1.28% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
Dow Transports |
10974, 0.57% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
High Yield (Bond) |
110.13, 0.21% |
Neutral |
Neutral |
|
US 10 year Bond Yield |
1.82%, 2.99% |
Bearish |
Bearish |
|
Nyse Summation Index |
923, 0.64% |
Bullish |
Neutral |
|
US Vix |
12.56, -10.41% |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
Skew |
128 |
Neutral |
Neutral |
|
20 DMA, S and P 500 |
3224, Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
|
50 DMA, S and P 500 |
3153, Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
|
200 DMA, S and P 500 |
2983, Above |
Bullish |
Neutral |
|
20 DMA, Nifty |
12178, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
|
50 DMA, Nifty |
12049, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
|
200 DMA, Nifty |
11606, Above |
Neutral |
Bullish |
|
S & P 500 P/E |
24.47 |
Bearish |
Neutral |
|
Nifty P/E |
28.51 |
Neutral |
Bearish |
|
India Vix |
14.07, 10.89% |
Neutral |
Bearish |
|
Dollar/Rupee |
70.96, -1.13% |
Neutral |
Bullish |
|
Overall |
S & P 500 |
Nifty |
|
|
Bullish Indications |
10 |
10 |
|
|
Bearish Indications |
4 |
5 |
|
|
Outlook |
Bullish |
Bullish |
|
|
Observation |
The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops. |
||
|
On the Horizon |
Euro Zone – CPI, US – PPI, CPI, UK – GDP, CPI, China – CPI, |
||
|
*Nifty |
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index |
||
|
Raw Data |
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, nse |
||
|
**Neutral |
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral |
The S&P 500 was up and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. Long term, QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are likely making another major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities and insane valuations. A massive drop in the S&P 500 is likely. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros.
A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts.
The critical levels to watch for the week are 3280 (up) and 3250 (down) on the S&P 500 and 12350 (up) and 12150 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.
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