Fed decision day. The FOMC delivers its rate call today at 2 PM ET, with markets now leaning toward a hike rather than a cut – a sharp repricing that briefly pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5% this week, its highest since 2023. Expect volatility to build into the announcement.
Asia (Tuesday's close, latest confirmed session): Nikkei 225 ended marginally lower near 63,484 for a third straight losing session, Shanghai Composite eased 0.54% to 3,864, Hang Seng dropped 1.00% to 24,667, and Kospi fell 0.85% to 6,627 – all cautious ahead of the Fed.
Key levels this morning:
EUR/USD – 1.1543, soft as the dollar firms on hike bets
Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,326, up 0.8%, back above $4,300 on safe-haven demand
Brent Crude – $107.9, elevated on the Saudi pipeline closure and Houthi attacks in the Middle East
Watch the Fed statement and press conference – today's main risk event.
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