Market Pulse - Thursday, Oct. 29

Fed holds, hike risk grows

The Fed kept rates at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote. Cook and Hammack both wanted an immediate hike, and December hike odds rose to as high as 83%. The 10-year yield closed near 5.04%.

Wall Street (Wednesday close)

S&P 500: 7,743.98 (+0.28%)

Dow: 52,475 (+0.19%)

Nasdaq: 26,550 (+0.27%)

Futures point to a weaker tech open: Nasdaq 100 is down about 1% and S&P 500 is down 0.25%. Alphabet sank after earnings, while Microsoft gained.

Asian markets

Nikkei 225: 64,675 (+1.1%), lifted by chip names

Kospi: 5,954 (–1.0%)

Hang Seng: 23,013 (–0.4%)

Shanghai: 3,657 (–0.7%)

ASX 200: 8,892 (+0.5%)

USD/JPY is at 157.84, and the BoJ decides tomorrow, with a hold expected.

Commodities

Brent: $110.08 (–1.4%)

WTI: $101.26 (–1.5%)

Gold: $4,028 (–1.0%), pressured by hike bets

Silver: $52.83 (–2.1%)

Forex and crypto

EUR/USD: 1.1136 (–0.19%)

Bitcoin: $80,219 (–0.8%)

Ethereum: $2,321 (–1.3%)

Today’s focus

ECB decision: a hold at 2.50% is expected, with a December hike about 84% priced in after September inflation hit 3.8%.

US Q3 GDP (forecast +3.0%) and September PCE at 8:30 ET. A hot print could add fuel to the hike narrative.