Oil leads the tape. Brent trades near $106.9–107, WTI near $102.8, up ~1.2–1.4% today, as Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline stays shut after drone strikes and Gulf–Iran Hormuz talks remain stalled. Supply risk, not policy, is driving markets.
FOMC decision tomorrow. Markets price ~87–88% odds of a Fed rate hike (not a cut) as the oil-driven inflation shock forces the Fed's hand. The ECB already delivered its second 2026 hike on September 10, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%.
EUR/USD – ~1.1550–1.1560, a 4th straight losing session, testing the 50‑day MA near 1.1530 and just off a one‑month low. ECB's hawkish stance offers some cushion, but risk stays skewed lower into the Fed.
Gold (XAU/USD) – slipped to ~$4,295–4,300 in the Asian session, pressured by rising Treasury yields and hike bets, even as the longer‑term uptrend holds. Key support at $4,270–4,286.
Asian markets mixed. Nikkei firmer on a SoftBank‑led bounce; Kospi and ASX 200 down on AI‑capex jitters (Samsung, SK Hynix); Shanghai flat‑to‑up (+0.1%), Hang Seng slightly lower. China data mixed – industrial output +5.2% YoY beat forecasts, but retail sales (+0.4%) and fixed‑asset investment (‑7.2% YTD) both missed, and home prices kept falling.
Crypto – Bitcoin near $77,800, pulling back from $79,000 as today's Senate CLARITY Act cloture vote (needs 60 votes, odds seen near 24–26%) and tomorrow's Fed decision both loom.
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