USDJPY:
The Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate unchanged at 1%, providing the market with no new reason for a sustained strengthening of the yen. One board member supported a rate increase, while the central bank maintained the possibility of further action if inflation risks intensify. However, the decision to leave the rate unchanged supported a recovery in USDJPY after the sharp decline during the previous session.
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The interest rate differential remains the main factor supporting the dollar. The Federal Reserve’s rate stands within the 3.50–3.75% range, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury remains above 4.6%. Under these conditions, interest rate differential trades remain attractive, while the absence of immediate tightening by the Bank of Japan limits demand for the yen.
The main risk to the USDJPY buying scenario remains confirmed action by the Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market and the possibility of renewed intervention if the yen weakens again. This factor could trigger a sharp reversal, meaning that the pair’s upside potential is not one-sided. Nevertheless, following the Bank of Japan’s decision, the current fundamental momentum continues to favor a further recovery in USDJPY.
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