GBPUSD:
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The pound begins the new session with moderate support from fresh UK labor market data. The REC/KPMG survey showed signs of stabilization in hiring in July and faster growth in starting salaries. This reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in domestic conditions and keeps the Bank of England focused on price pressures, but it does not yet provide GBPUSD with a strong independent bullish driver.
Following weak US employment data, the dollar lost some of its advantage, although demand for the US currency is recovering moderately at the start of Monday’s session. US Treasury yields are edging higher, while the market is reluctant to extend Friday’s repricing of Federal Reserve expectations ahead of the July inflation report. For the pound, this creates renewed pressure despite more resilient signals from the UK labor market.
The Bank of England is keeping its policy rate at 3.75%, so the pound’s next move will depend on whether upcoming data confirm economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressure. For now, the fresh UK factor only limits downside pressure and does not outweigh the current US dollar impulse. Under the baseline scenario, the bias remains toward a moderate decline in GBPUSD during the session.
Trading idea: SELL 1.3485, SL 1.3520, TP 1.3400
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