Market Commentary: Today Is Labor Day Holiday; U.S. Markets Closed

Written by Gary

The US Markets are closed today, but London is open. The SP500 futures are down along with the oils. The US dollar is up and the markets in London, Paris and Germany are down fractionally.

The World and its geopolitical issues did not become any worse over the weekend, but tomorrow's opening could be 'not-so-good' for the bulls.

Markets are expected to open fractionally lower tomorrow, but what happens immediately after the opening is anyone's guess in this casino market.

I would advise caution in taking any position during this coming week as some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 56 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against 'Sheeple' buying high and selling low.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 60.9 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here )

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 65.26. (Chart Here) Very close to resistance now and rising.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 75.80. (Chart Here) Remains below support, now resistance.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 23.43. (Chart Here)Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 40.93. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24 is signaling a market reversal in our near future.

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 68.82. (Chart Here)

Sometime in the future, there will be another three percent drop, only it will go to four, recover somewhat and the BTFDers will cry halleluiah and buy again. Only this time it doesn't recover fully like in the past and drops again, increasing the net drop to seven percent and so on.

Investors are currently unhappy, unenthusiastic, skittish and ready to jump ship every time it nudges against a small financial iceberg. They remain long for now unable to afford to sell and live off cash savings that have negative real rates thanks to the Feds. They feel in their guts, correctly, that a real 'correction' is coming and can't do anything about it until it is too late. Greed rules the day and investors should be very cautious.

One thing to keep in mind is that stocks may not be setting up for a fearsome bear market. History shows that there are two types of corrections -- sharp, brutal downturns that clear the air fairly quickly and prolonged periods of backing-and-filling that gradually remedy built-up imbalances. Time will tell which one lies ahead.

A primary worry among many stock investors today is that the long running bull market may soon come to an end. At the heart of their concern is exactly what lies beyond the bull market peak, as many worry that the subsequent decline into the next bear market could quickly become swift and severe.

But history has shown that the transition from a bull market to a bear market is often a gradual and drawn out process filled with rallies and correction that plays out over an extended period of time. In short, bull markets die long slow deaths, and it is this prolonged dying process that causes so many investors to find themselves unwittingly trapped in the next bear market long before they even realize it.

The Margin Debt Peaks May Indicate End Of Cyclical Bull Market. (See monthly margin debt at Securities Market Credit) (It has since gone down slightly from March, 2014 at 466 billion, but remains higher than previous years. (See current chart here.)

It is the final ending of QE that worries me the most as many financial institution and emerging markets can not continue to push forward or upwards without the Fed's 'Market Viagra'. The debt stands at 4 trillion and will be at 5 trillion by the time the taper (October 2014) is completed and that is one hell of a debt that 'someone' has to pay.

The SP500 Futures is at 1998.95 down 2.55 or -0.13%.

WTI oil is trading between 95.90 (resistance) and 95.51 (support) today. The session bias is quiet, trending down and is currently trading up at 95.61. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here) (Look at the 60 minute time scale.)

Brent Crude is trading between 103.30 (resistance) and 102.82 (support) today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading up at 103.08. (Chart Here)

Gold fell from 1290.91 earlier to 1286.80 and is currently trading down at 1287.60. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 3.147 falling from 3.173 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 82.83 and 82.68 and is currently trading up at 82.75, the bias is currently neutral and quiet. (Chart Here)

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