Written by Gary
The DOW touched 290 earlier and volume didn't totally fall off as expected pushing equities fractionally higher. WTI oil is trending down and looks to put a cap on any further market gains today.
By noon the averages were still elevated, but trading sideways while investors watch the U.S. Dollar trade lower. The bear is watching.
I have been saying that oil is heading lower and now Reuter's backs my opinion up. ZeroHedge writes, For those hoping that the recent brief dip in Brent crude below $50 - most notably Venezuela's intrepid socialist leader Nicolas Maduro whose numbered days get shorter with every day Brent closes red, and countless bondholders of junk- debt capitalized shale companies - would mean that Saudi Arabia's vendetta against OPEC would finally be put on hiatus, we have bad news: the vendetta just wen nuclear because as Reuters reports, there is "no chance of OPEC output cut."
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the midday and the session market direction meter is 32 % bullish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains just above zero at +0.52. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warnings of a 'long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 51 % Bearish.
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 52.3 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the markets start to descend.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -8.82. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at47.74 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's.
Many indicators are showing markets leveling off or rounding indicating market softness that could lead to lower values and investor's should watch carefully. The SP500 MACD, $BPNYA, $BPSPX, $TNX and the $NYA all show rounding off the tops which in the past has lead to a downturn.
Also, the SP500 10 DMA has crossed over the 20 DMA (12-11-14) always indicating a 'correction' underway. The 50,100, 145 and 200 DMA are all going flat which is never a good omen for a continuing bull run. Watch for the 50 DMA to cross over the 100,145 and 200 DMA to indicate how deep the correction will be.
These are not 'leading' indicators as such, but depicting 'trends' in the making showing data accumulated over the past several months, but needs to be watched.
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 57.82. (Chart Here) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 70.20. (Chart Here) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 20.14. (Chart Here)
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 71.68. (Chart Here)
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,788. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling. We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,900, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.
The DOW at 12:00 is at 17872 up 289 or 1.64%. (Historical High 18,103.45)
The SP500 is at 2059 up 33 or 1.63%. (Historical High 2,093.55)
SPY is at 205.61 up 3 or 1.64%.
The $RUT is at 1194 up 18 or 1.56%.
NASDAQ is at 4731 up 80 or 1.72%. (Historical High 5132.52)
NASDAQ 100 is at 4236 up 76 or 1.83%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 17.05 down 2.26 or -11.70%. Bullish Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net neutral, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 49.64 (resistance) and 48.25 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, trading sideways and is currently trading up at 48.57. (Chart Here)
Brent Crude is trading between 51.90 (resistance) and 50.61 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, trending down and is currently trading up at 50.78. (ChartHere)
Gold rose from 1204.90 earlier to 1216.42 and is currently trading down at 1213.10. The current intra-session trend is elevated, but trading sideways. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 2.757 falling from 2.793 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 92.75 (highest since 2005 and ~92 is a very substantial resistance with 92.53 representing a triple top) and 92.05 and is currently trading up at 92.40, the bias is currently elevated and trading down. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily. The current level (~91 / 92) is the resistance (substantial) and could be a triple top of sorts. Historical chart Here.
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.