Market Commentary: Markets See-Sawing, Mostly In The Red, But Flat

Written by Gary

Premarkets were up +0.05% and dropped to -0.2% prior to the market opening. The markets did briefly open in the red and then popped up to green and flat on low volume. As expected the markets should show some green today after the big plunge yesterday, but that hint of green doesn't mean we won't see more downside in the coming sessions. This is just a 'correction' when the pendulum swings too far.

By 10 am the averages were back in the red, see-sawing and unable to find a direction.

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening and the short-term market direction meter is fractionally bearish. We remain mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned significantly and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -6.23. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 68 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The 'Sheeples' always seem to get it wrong.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 50.6 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here )

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 54.56. (Chart Here) Below support zone and apparently going further down. Next stop was ~57 and now it is ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 65.40. (Chart Here) In support zone and falling - doesn't look good. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 24.20. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -67.57. (Chart Here)But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 65.90. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at43.04 %. (Chart Here) Unless this downward trend reverses itself soon, we are going to see further downside.

It is still possible that Mr. Market is not through playing with the averages and even newer historical highs are a distinct possibility. Historically, accordingly to Eric Parnell, "major bull markets have almost never reached their final peak in a sideways grinding pattern. Instead, they have almost always peaked with flourish including one final crescendo toward a new all-time high before finally rolling over and succumbing to the forces of the new bear market".

As long-time readers know, says David Moenning, "I believe it is VITAL to have systems and/or models to guide one in their investing journey. As the late Marty Zweig used to say, 'Those who rely on a crystal ball will wind up with an awful lot of crushed glass in their portfolio'." This basically states our views on the market too, although it is best to be ready for the unexpected if you are bullish.

The longer 6 month outlook is now 35-65 sell (probably should be 40-60 sell) and will remain bearish until we can see what the effects are in the Fed's game plan, Russia's annexing game playing and of course the World's newest player Iraq, ISIS and Israel. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a lessor degree of reliability for the time being and watch what the Janet Yellen's Fed does over the next couple of months.

The DOW at 10:15 is at 16793 down 11 or -0.06%.

The SP500 is at 1945 down 1 or -0.06%.

SPY is at 194.26 down 0.05 or -0.02%.

The $RUT is at 1088 up 2 or 0.20%.

NASDAQ is at 4423 up 0.43 or 0.03%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3986 up 1 or 0.03%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 16.63 down 0.08 or -0.48%. Bearish to Neutral Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net negative, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is negative to flat.

WTI oil is trading between 91.02 (resistance) and 88.22 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 90.12. (Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 94.37 (resistance) and 91.57 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 92.75. (Chart Here)

The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.

Gold fell from 1222.82 earlier to 1209.21 and is currently trading down at 1211.90. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 2.999 falling from 3.038 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 86.01 and 85.60 and is currently trading up at85.94, the bias is currently net positive. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 has been broken.

Real Time Market Numbers