Written by Gary
Guessed incorrectly for today's opening as the premarkets were up +0.10% this morning and opened same. Within a few minutes the bears marched in and snatched the SP500's new high away (2006.12) and started to trend down. At the 15 minute mark the averages looked dismal as the volume was low, but heaver than normal.
By 10 am the bears were growling and the bull were cowering as the averages were sea-sawing back and forth Friday's closing numbers.
The DOW has been in the red since the opening and it is difficult to determine where we are going today. Our first guess yesterday was down and it remains to be seen is that actually happens. The US morning financial's are in the 'just-OK' to 'not-so-good' column and that is playing a large part in this morning sessions investors indecisions.
The first column is what was reported this morning. The second column is what was expected and the third is the last report.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at13.28. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 58 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against 'Sheeple' buying high and selling low.
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 60.9 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here )
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 65.38. (Chart Here) Very close to resistance now and rising.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 75.80. (Chart Here) Remains below support, now resistance.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 23.90. (Chart Here)Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 40.93. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24 is signaling a market reversal in our near future.
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 69.03. (Chart Here)
Bottom line here is that I have not seen any serious bears jumping out of the woods just yet, although I am VERY concerned that ANY minor correction could turn nasty in a heart beat. One significant signal would be daily losses in any of the major averages that go over the 'magic' 3 % and then you need to pay close attention to risk-off tactics. There hasn't been a 10% correction in several years and some investors are becoming increasingly concerned an imminent correction is on the way.
Investors are currently unhappy, unenthusiastic, skittish and ready to jump ship every time it nudges against a small financial iceberg. They remain long for now unable to afford to sell and live off cash savings that have negative real rates thanks to the Feds. They feel in their guts, correctly, that a real 'correction' is coming and can't do anything about it until it is too late. Greed rules the day and investors should be very cautious.
One thing to keep in mind is that stocks may not be setting up for a fearsome bear market. History shows that there are two types of corrections -- sharp, brutal downturns that clear the air fairly quickly and prolonged periods of backing-and-filling that gradually remedy built-up imbalances. Time will tell which one lies ahead.
The longer 6 month outlook is now 35-65 sell and will remain bearish until we can see what the effects are in the Fed's game plan, Russia's annexing game playing and of course the World's newest player Iraq, ISIS and Israel. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a lessor degree of reliability for the time being and watch what the Janet Yellen's Fed does over the next couple of months.
Charts and other technical tea reading exercises are, for the most part, not worth the effort to discern directions now that the Fed has refilled the sand box with gravel, rocks and old beer cans. That is just my view, but they have completely thrown a monkey wrench into the works and no one knows anything anymore with certainty.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 17080 down 16 or -0.09%.
The SP500 is at 2004 up 0.55 or 0.03%.
SPY is at 200.75 up 0.04 or 0.01%.
The $RUT is at 1179 up 4 or 0.37%.
NASDAQ is at 4594 up 14.31 or 0.30%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4092 up 9 or 0.23%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 12.72 up 0.74 or 6.09%. Bearish Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been neutral and the current bias is flat and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 95.87 (resistance) and 94.53 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 94.64. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here) (Look at the 5H time scale.)
Brent Crude is trading between 102.86 (resistance) and 101.52 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 101.75. (Chart Here)
Gold fell from 1288.10 earlier to 1266.07 and is currently trading down at 1266.92. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.166 rising from 3.139 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 83.05 and 82.78 and is currently trading up at 83.03, the bias is currently positive. (Chart Here)
Real Time Market Numbers
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