Market Commentary: Markets Open Mixed On Unusual Heavy Volume, Direction Uncertain

Written by Gary

Premarkets were flat with a leaning towards the green side on no US economic news this morning. Minutes prior to the opening there was heavy selling which marked an unusual occurrence signaling this session needs to be watched for sudden reversals. Markets opened mixed with the small caps fractionally in the red and the large caps up a quarter point.

By 10 am the averages remained mixed, see-sawing on moderate to high volume. Market direction will not be decided until after the FMOC rate decision later today.

Market moving news will come this afternoon at 2 pm when the Fed's announce their pace of MBA Purchases, Treasury purchases and the FOMC rate decision. At that time we could see some serious volatility when the Fed's terminate any doubts on the ending of QE. The next focus will be the timing of the first hike of interest rates.

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performersat the opening and the short-term market direction meter is bullish. We remain mostly, at best, negative and conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have now turned and may be enough for some to start shorting. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get more aggressive in the short-term and volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned upward, but remains above zero at +1.64. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound.

Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warning of a 'long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 48 % Bearish (falling from 70% and now rising from 33%) and it seems to be a good sign for being bearish. The 'Sheeples' always seem to get it wrong.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 44.0 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the direction continue to descend.

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 80.30. (Chart Here)But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. (Now were are high enough to descend again - watch out!) Highest since November, 2013 which was followed by a steep decline.

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at53.10 %. (Chart Here) The downside decent has reversed, but will it continue to rise above 50%? The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's.

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 47.84. (Chart Here) Below support zone but rising. Next stop was ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. We are seriously below 44 and need a reversal pronto as it looks like there is nothing to stop the fall until 25 and taking the markets with it.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 54.60. (Chart Here) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 23.10. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 67.37. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,707. (Chart Here) We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance at ~10600/700, stay tuned. Next stop down is 9750, then 9250, and 8500.

The longer 6 month outlook is now 30-70 sell (probably should be 20-80 sell) and will remain bearish until we can see what the effects are in the Fed's game plan.Sooner or later brighter skies will return over the market. Until then, investors should employ the first thing one learns while in a foxhole; keep their head down.

The DOW at 10:15 is at 17043 up 37 or 0.22%.

The SP500 is at 1987 up 2 or 0.12%.

SPY is at 198.68 up 0.31 or 0.15%.

The $RUT is at 1147 down 2 or -0.19%.

NASDAQ is at 4547 down 17 or -0.37%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 4091 down 17 or -0.41%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 14.72 up 0.33 or 2.29%. Neutral Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is elevated and trending up.

WTI oil is trading between 82.70 (resistance) and 81.55 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 82.22. (Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 87.72 (resistance) and 86.20 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 87.17. (Chart Here)

Gold fell from 1230.32 earlier to 1221.02 and is currently trading up at 1225.00. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 3.104 rising from 3.077 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 85.51 and 85.32 and is currently trading down at 85.33, the bias is currently negative. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily.

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