Premarkets were up a hefty +0.35% this morning indicating the markets will open in the positive zone. The SP500 gaped up at the opening +0.35% and the DOW cautiously opened up +0.05% and then moving up to +0.25% in the first 10 minutes.
By 10 am the averages were set to put in another positive performance but mimicking the familiar sea-sawing and low volume we have seen in resent sessions. I do not see any reason to throw away the party hats just yet, but would err to the side of caution.
I have been saying the markets will most likely climb back up near or surpass the old highs. The levels on the SP500 to watch for are gaps the SP500 made when it started to fall. The first one in which we will most likely see closed soon is at 1970 and the last one is at 1988 just below the historical high. It is at that point I become extremely cautious and concerned about further advances.
Several indicators show that the SP500 level of 1970 is as high as it is going to go (16882 on the DOW and 197 on SPY), but that comes from charts that the Fed has screwed up by tossing in beer cans and soiled baby diapers into the mix.
The Nasdaq is very close to making a double top and that has me worried with all this talk of bear markets. The $RUT is still down 66 points from its high and is looking like it will be pushing up daisies soon.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500MACD has turned up, but remains below zero at -4.24. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators are starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 50 % bearish.
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 58.3 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here )
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 62.45. (Chart Here) Very close to support.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 71.20. (Chart Here) Remains below support, now resistance.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +35.77. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and start to descend, but any thing below 30 / 40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and the reverse is true at +40.
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 67.25. (Chart Here)
Bottom line here is that I have not seen any serious bears jumping out of the woods just yet, although I am VERY concerned that ANY minor correction could turn nasty in a heart beat. One significant signal would be daily losses in any of the major averages that go over the 'magic' 3 % and then you need to pay close attention to risk-off tactics. There hasn't been a 10% correction in several years and some investors are becoming increasingly concerned an imminent correction is on the way.
Sometime in the future, there will be another three percent drop, only it will go to four, recover somewhat and the BTFDers will cry halleluiah and buy again. Only this time it doesn't recover fully like in the past and drops again, increasing the net drop to seven percent and so on.
Investors are currently unhappy, unenthusiastic, skittish and ready to jump ship every time it nudges against a small financial iceberg. One thing to keep in mind is that stocks may not be setting up for a fearsome bear market. History shows that there are two types of corrections -- sharp, brutal downturns that clear the air fairly quickly and prolonged periods of backing-and-filling that gradually remedy built-up imbalances. Time will tell which one lies ahead.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 16762 up 48 or 0.29%.
The SP500 is at 1963 up 8 or 0.39%.
SPY is at 196.49 up 0.71 or 0.36%.
The $RUT is at 1151 up 7 or 0.62%.
NASDAQ is at 4478 up 25 or 0.55%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3991 up 22 or 0.55%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 12.16 down 0.26 or -2.25%. Bullish Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 95.22 (resistance) and 95.32 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 96.07. (Chart Here)
Brent Crude is trading between 102.76 (resistance) and 102.06 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading down at 102.36. (Chart Here)
Gold fell from 1316.45 earlier to 1293.91 and is currently trading down at 1295.80. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.094 falling from 3.104 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 81.67 and 81.47 and is currently trading down at81.50, the bias is currently negative and volatile. (Chart Here)
Real Time Market Numbers
Leading Stock Quotes powered by Investing.com
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.