Premarkets were unusually quiet and remained at the closing prices of yesterday's session. Futures rose to 10% when US Continuing Claims came fractionally higher and Initial Jobless Claims reported lower numbers. Markets opened at +0.10%, faltered for a minute on very low volume and then continued to melt fractionally higher. Obviously, I am not the only one concerned with Mr. Market's ability to continue his bullish push.
By 10 am the SP500 eased above its historic high by +0.20 and backed off on moderate volume.
Today is a potential crisis (notice the last 4 letters in crisis spell out the virus invading Iraq!) for the bulls that could spell a moderate decent and actually setup a nice dip for buying as I do not believe we have seen the last of Mr. Bull.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at +5.63. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 48 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against 'Sheeple' buying high and selling low.
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 59.0 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here )
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 63.42. (Chart Here) Very close to support, but rising.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 72.40. (Chart Here) Remains below support, now resistance.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 49.75. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and start to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to +58.24 is signaling a market reversal in our near future.
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 68.52. (Chart Here)
The longer 6 month outlook is now 35-65 sell and will remain bearish until we can see what the effects are in the Fed's 'Tapering' game plan, Russia's annexing game playing and of course the World's newest player Iraq and Israel. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a lessor degree of reliability for the time being and watch what the Janet Yellen's Fed does over the next couple of months.
It is the final ending of QE that worries me the most as many financial institution and emerging markets can not continue to push forward or upwards without the Fed's 'Market Viagra'. The debt stands at 4 trillion and will be at 5 trillion by the time the taper (October 2014) is completed and that is one hell of a debt that 'someone' has to pay. But, that is not all, Cris Sheridan writes in his article, What Happens When Quantitative Easing Ends, "Once liquidity starts to dry up at the end of this year it looks very likely that the yield on 10-year government bonds will go up. That will cause mortgage rates to go up... the property market to come down, a significant correction in the stock market, a negative wealth effect, less consumption and, I think, then the US will start moving back towards recession."
The DOW at 10:15 is at 17019 up 40 or 0.24%.
The SP500 is at 1989 up 2 or 0.11%.
SPY is at 199.13 up 0.23 or 0.12%.
The $RUT is at 1149 down 9 or -0.74%.
NASDAQ is at 4518 down 8 or -0.18%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4040 up 0.02 or 0.00%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 11.89 up 0.11 or 0.85%. Neutral Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is elevated and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 93.92 (resistance) and 92.63 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 93.79. (Chart Here)
Brent Crude is trading between 102.27 (resistance) and 101.20 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 101.91. (Chart Here)
Gold fell from 1292.16 earlier to 1274.54 and is currently trading down at 1279.00. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.179 rising from 3.150 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 82.41 and 82.18 and is currently trading up at 82.25, the bias is currently trending down. (Chart Here)
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