Premarkets were up +0.07% after positive US financial data was reported this morning. Markets opened flat and begin melting upwards where the SP500 tested yesterday's new historic high by besting it by +0.18 and then backed off.
By 10 the SP500 was again seriously testing yesterday's highs moving fractionally higher (2002.77), but on very low volume, suggesting HFT algo computer manipulation. Caution.
Without a doubt the US economy is improving, but at a snails pace and I doubt the market will increase proportionally in the months ahead, especially with the recessionary headwinds flowing in from the EU.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at+10.74. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish. The mornings market direction meter is slightly bullish, but the $VIX is 'slightly' trending from neutral to bearish. In other words, anything could happen.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 55 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against 'Sheeple' buying high and selling low.
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 60.2 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here )
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 64.92. (Chart Here) Very close to support, but rising.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 75.60. (Chart Here) Remains below support, now resistance.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 23.77. (Chart Here)Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +35.40. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24 is signaling a market reversal in our near future.
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 68.79. (Chart Here)
Bottom line here is that I have not seen any serious bears jumping out of the woods just yet, although I am VERY concerned that ANY minor correction could turn nasty in a heart beat. One significant signal would be daily losses in any of the major averages that go over the 'magic' 3 % and then you need to pay close attention to risk-off tactics. There hasn't been a 10% correction in several years and some investors are becoming increasingly concerned an imminent correction is on the way.
Investors are currently unhappy, unenthusiastic, skittish and ready to jump ship every time it nudges against a small financial iceberg. They remain long for now unable to afford to sell and live off cash savings that have negative real rates thanks to the Feds. They feel in their guts, correctly, that a real 'correction' is coming and can't do anything about it until it is too late. Greed rules the day and investors should be very cautious.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 17119 up 43 or 0.26%.
The SP500 is at 2001 up 3 or 0.16%.
SPY is at 200.41 up 0.22 or 0.11%.
The $RUT is at 1169 up 4 or 0.32%.
NASDAQ is at 4562 up 5 or 0.10%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4067 down 1 or -0.03%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 11.73 up 0.03 or 0.26%. Neutral Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is elevated and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 94.27 (resistance) and 93.38 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 94.25. (Chart Here)
Brent Crude is trading between 103.24 (resistance) and 102.52 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 103.22. (Chart Here)
Gold rose from 1276.18 earlier to 1291.71 and is currently trading up at 1287.60. The current intra-session trend is elevated, but sideways. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.228 rising from 3.213 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 82.65 and 82.47 and is currently trading up at 82.55, the bias is currently neutral and volatile. (Chart Here)
Real Time Market Numbers
Leading Stock Quotes powered by Investing.com
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.