Market Commentary: Markets Open Down One Percent On High Volume

Written by Gary

Premarkets were down 0.7% this morning and plunged to over -1% after the highly important US Retail Sales Group fell to -0.2% from +0.4% and Advanced Retail Sales fell to -0.3% from +0.6%. Generally, all of this mornings financial reports were in the red pushing futures down. The DOW opened down 300 points (-1.8%), SP500 -1.6% and the $VIX +26.

By 10 am the high volume was falling off substantially, new supports remained intact and gold has pushed upwards and the US dollar rebounded off its major support.

Boy was I wrong about what was going to happen today, a bit premature I believe. So far, my spinning top candle 100% reversal prognosis from yesterday isn't looking like it is going to be confirmed today. Guessing bottoms is NOT something one should partake in, my bad. The lesson here is to wait for confirmation and to cut your losses short, which I have done.

The good news is the volume is high and the BTFDers are in full swing and major supports have held, unfortunately there is more bad news than good news. This correction has turned out to be relatively robust surprising many investors and analysts, but the really big one is still a year away, at least.

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards the sell to lighten portfolio of non-performers at the opening and the short-term market direction meter is neutral. We remain mostly, at best, negative and conservatively bullish. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have are now turning and that is still not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned the current downtrend will get more aggressive. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -27.04. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound. Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 35 % Bearish (falling from 70%) and it seems to be a good sign for being bearish. The 'Sheeples' always seem to get it wrong.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 40.4 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here )

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 40.53. (Chart Here) Below support zone and apparently going further down. Next stop was ~57 and now it is ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. We are there and need a reversal pronto.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 43.00. (Chart Here) In support zone and falling - doesn't look good. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 19.33. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -44.34. (Chart Here)But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 62.59. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at30.48 %. (Chart Here) Unless this downward trend reverses itself soon, we are going to see further downside. The next support is ~37.00 and ~25.00 below that.

StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10071. (Chart Here)

The DOW at 10:00 is at 16165 down 148 or -0.89%.

The SP500 is at 1862 down 17 or -0.88%.

SPY is at 186.01 down 2 or -0.84%.

The $RUT is at 1059 down 2 or -0.23%.

NASDAQ is at 4197 down 30 or -0.72%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3780 down 31 or -0.81%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 25.27 up 2.48 or 10.88%. Bullish Bearish Neutral Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is negative, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is negative.

WTI oil is trading between 82.40 (resistance) and 79.99 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 82.29. (Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 85.98 (resistance) and 83.73 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 85.80. (Chart Here)

Gold rose from 1222.24 earlier to 1249.94 and is currently trading down at 1240.10. The current intra-session trend is positive and volatile. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 3.040 falling from 3.084 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 86.12 and 84.52 and is currently trading up at 85.31, the bias is currently negative and trending upwards. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. Support was tested this morning and has rebounded.

Real Time Market Numbers