Market Commentary: Markets End Session In Green, Large Caps Down 1% For The Week

Written by Gary

The SP500, DOW and the NASDAQ all closed below a major resistance, below the 200 DMA and on low volume. The markets were quiet this Friday afternoon leading into what some analysts is going to be very volatile in the week ahead.

By 4 pm the averages were up over 1.3%, $RUT continued its decline and continued market weakness is prevalent. The large caps ended the week down 1%, NASDAQ and the $RUT were down 0.4% for the week. The bull's party on.

In a previous article I joked about having a QE5, skipping QE 4, and evidently this is something a lot of investors really want. Just the 'rumor of delaying QE3 was enough to send the markets soaring, but savvy investors know this is just a rumor - it is, right?

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the close and the short-term market direction meter is bullish down from VERY bullish this morning. We remain mostly, at best, negative and conservatively bullish. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have now turned and may be enough for some to start shorting. Right now now I am getting very concerned the current downtrend will get more aggressive in the short-term and volatility may promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -28.41. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound. Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy.

Looking at the weekly charts it appears we have another 4% to 5% more to go before we hit the up-trend line from 2009. Just a couple of serious down session would mark a good point for a reversal.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 40 % Bearish (falling from 70%) and it seems to be a good sign for being bearish. The 'Sheeples' always seem to get it wrong.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 37.6 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0.

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 39.34. (Chart Here) Below support zone and apparently going further down. Next stop was ~57 and now it is ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. We are seriously below 44 and need a reversal pronto as it looks like there is nothing to stop the fall until 25 and taking the markets with it.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 41.60. (Chart Here) In support zone and falling - doesn't look good. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. The next stop now is ~37.00.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 22.99. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -9.67. (Chart Here)But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Today's reading indicates we are ripe for another dip.

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 64.93. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at32.01 %. (Chart Here) Unless this downward trend reverses itself soon, we are going to see further downside. The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 20012 was the last time we saw numbers this low.

StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10269. (Chart Here) Next stop is 9750, then 9250, and 8500.

The DOW at 4:00 is at 16380 up 263 or 1.63%.

The SP500 is at 1887 up 24 or 1.29%.

SPY is at 188.36 up 2 or 1.18%.

The $RUT is at 1082 down 4 or -0.35%.

NASDAQ is at 4258 up 41 or 0.97%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3815 up 50 or 1.33%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 22.23 down 2.98 or -11.83%. Neutral Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is negative, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is positive and trending down.

WTI oil is trading between 84.42 (resistance) and 82.53 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, trending down and is currently trading down at 83.00. (Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 87.19 (resistance) and 85.49 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, trending down and is currently trading down at 86.11.(Chart Here)

Gold fell from 1242.16 earlier to 1232.53 and is currently trading down at 1228.10. The current intra-session trend is neutral. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 3.002 rising from 2.951 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 85.34 and 84.85 and is currently trading down at 85.29, the bias is currently positive. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. Support has been tested several times and has held.

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