Market Commentary: Markets Down Fractionally From Friday's Close On Moderate Volume

Written by Gary

WTI oil fell into the high 48's last night and the premarkets followed suit fractionally declining down to -0.2%. Greece, Ukraine and the EU are still very much in focus as investors sour on too much 'Hopium' from last weeks robust and positive news coming in from abroad. Markets gaped down from Friday's historical high closing and on 'moderate' volume continued to slip fractionally.

By 10 am the trend was down, volume falling off and a hint of sideways trading in the works IF oil doesn't fall any further today. Gambling in the market casino might be hazardous to your pocketbook today.

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards Hold portfolio of non-performers at the opening and the session market direction meter (for day traders) is 51 % Bearish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, but with a bearish slant. I am very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals that will only please the day traders. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 18.31.

Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as negative market changes are happening everyday. Many investors are starting to take in some profits from 'high-fliers' as a precaution and to build a better cash base for the 'dips'.

As of now, I do see some leading indicators that are warning of a 'long-term' reversal within six months. I believe one is most likely to occur later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market. If you are not worried, then at least be cautious.

Brett Arends described the U.S. stock market as "one of the most dangerous in the world ," based on the research of Wellershoff & Partners, and suggested it may be a good idea to diversify with some international or emerging markets funds.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 68 % Bearish.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index is 79. Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear. (At 'Extreme Greed') (Chart Here) The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs exceeds the number hitting lows and is at the upper end of its range, indicating extreme greed.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 60.7 % bullish with the status at Bull Confirmed. (Chart Here )

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 24.57. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at59.89 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's.

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 64.37. (Chart Here) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 74.20. (Chart Here) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 20.75. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 75.38. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 11,055. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors. It is a very important index for investors to watch. We are above the support (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,000 to 11,108, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next support down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.

The longer 6 month outlook is now 45-55 sell and will remain somewhat bearish until we can see what the effects are from the oil decline, the Euro collision with Greece and the U.S. Fed possibly triggering a deflationary slide. The markets are at a crossroad of sorts, indecision of which way to go, with a bias to the downside.Investors should employ the first thing one learns while in a foxhole; keep their head down.

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update

The DOW at 10:15 is at 18076 down 65 or -0.36%. (Historical High 18,144.29)

The SP500 is at 2104 down 6 or -0.28%. (Historical High 2,110.61)

SPY is at 210.70 down 0.57 or -0.27%.

The $RUT is at 1225 down 7 or -0.54%.

NASDAQ is at 4943 down 14 or -0.28%. (Historical High 5132.52)

NASDAQ 100 is at 4432 down 11 or -0.24%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 15.37 up 1.07 or 7.48%. Bullish to Neutral Movement.

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is depressed and sideways.

WTI oil is trading between 50.98 (resistance) and 48.60 (support) today. The support currently is ~46.70 and the next resistance is ~54.00+. The Iranians say they are comfortable with $25 and I'll bet the Saudi's will do everything possible to make it painful for them, meaning much lower prices to come. The session bias is trending down and is currently trading up at 49.63. (Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 60.47 (resistance) and 58.37 (support) today. The support currently is ~50.40 and the next resistance is ~62.00. The session bias isnegative and is currently trading up at 59.19. (Chart Here)

Citi reduced its annual forecast for Brent crude for the second time in 2015. Prices in the $45-$55 range are unsustainable and will trigger "disinvestment from oil" and a fourth-quarter rebound to $75 a barrel, according to the report. "Prices this year will likely average $54 a barrel".

Gold rose from 1190.71 earlier to 1207.47 and is currently trading up at 1205.30. The current intra-session trend is positive. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 2.579 falling from 2.609 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 59.01 and 94.58 (highest levels since 2003 and ~93.69 is a very substantial support). U.S. dollar is currently trading down at 94.67, the bias is currently trending down. (Chart Here)

FRED USD chart. (Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies)

Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily. The level of ~93 is the current support and is substantial. The ~95 area appears to be a minor resistance for those interested. Historical chart Here.