Market Commentary: Markets Close Mixed And Flat, DOW Off 25, NASDAQ Up 2

Written by Gary

Most of the afternoon session was trading in a narrow zone and ended in a flat, mixed and directionless. Spinning top reversal Doji's marked the end of the DOW and SP500 today which need confirmation tomorrow.

By 4 pm the green volume picked up fractionally as some brave bulls dipped their toes into the market waters.

I have given examples of candlestick patterns over the past several sessions including this one where reversal pattern Doji's ended this session, but are they really accurate? Cam Hui has written a timely article about Doji's, the current market and where we are headed. This is required reading I think.

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performersat the close and the short-term market direction meter is Bullish. We remain mostly, at best, negative and conservatively bullish. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have now turned and may be enough for some to start shorting. Right now now I am getting very concerned the current downtrend will get more aggressive in the short-term and volatility may promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -29.30. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound. Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy.

Looking at the weekly charts it appears we have another 5% to 7% more to go before we hit the up-trend line from 2009. The DOW is currently at ~15010 and the intersecting up-trend is at 15685 (and rising), the SP500 still has a way to go to the 1700 level, NASDAQ at the 3750 level and the $RUT at the 1010 level marks the 2009 uptrend. Just a couple of serious down session would mark a good point for a reversal.

Investing.com members' sentiments are 34 % Bearish (falling from 70%) and it seems to be a good sign for being bearish. The 'Sheeples' always seem to get it wrong.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 37.0 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0.

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 38.77. (Chart Here) Below support zone and apparently going further down. Next stop was ~57 and now it is ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. We are seriously below 44 and need a reversal pronto as it looks like there is nothing to stop the fall until 25 and taking the markets with it.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 41.00. (Chart Here) In support zone and falling - doesn't look good. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. The next stop now is ~37.00.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 21.53. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -38.25. (Chart Here)But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 63.08. (Chart Here)

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 30.08 %. (Chart Here) Unless this downward trend reverses itself soon, we are going to see further downside. The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 20012 was the last time we saw numbers this low.

StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10132. (Chart Here) Next stop is 9750, then 9250, and 8500.

The DOW at 4:00 is at 16117 down 25 or -0.15%.

The SP500 is at 1863 up 0.27 or 0.01%.

SPY is at 185.57 down 0.16 or -0.09%.

The $RUT is at 1086 up 13 or 1.25%.

NASDAQ is at 4217 up 2 or 0.05%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3765 down 21 or -0.55%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 25.20 down 1.05 or -4.00%. Bullish to Neutral Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is negative, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is mixed, but trending higher.

WTI oil is trading between 84.61 (resistance) and 79.85 (support) today. The session bias is positive, volatile and is currently trading down at 82.47. (Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 87.80 (resistance) and 82.93 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 85.58. (Chart Here)

Gold fell from 1244.63 earlier to 1236.09 and is currently trading down at 1239.80. The current intra-session trend is neutral. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 2.986 rising from 2.952 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 85.52 and 84.84 and is currently trading down at 85.01, the bias is currently negative and testing support. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support.

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