Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 09-05-2014
SP500 continued to rise along with the other averages and closed at a new closing high of 2007.71. The DOW didn't make a new closing high, but came within a point.
By 4 pm my earlier guesses were off as the markets continued to climb on a relatively quiet Friday afternoon. Aftermarket SPY showed some extremely heavy selling on unusual heavy volume. So, what are your plans for Monday? Ready to panic yet?
The markets keep going up and investors are getting the 'worries'.
If it hasn't obvious to the 'Sheeples' seeing what is really going on in the U.S., the EU and China, it should be by now. Read my weekend commentary tomorrow (and Sunday) for an insight how the World problems are going to exacerbate the 'issues' already here in the U.S. and perhaps bring on another recession.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at13.16. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 62 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against 'Sheeple' buying high and selling low.
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 60.5 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here )
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 65.80. (Chart Here) Very close to resistance now and rising.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 75.40. (Chart Here) Remains below support, now resistance.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 24.61. (Chart Here)Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -2.78. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24, signaling a market reversal and it has started.
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 69.26. (Chart Here)
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17137 up 68 or 0.40%.
The SP500 is at 2007.71 up 10 or 0.50%.
SPY is at 201.18 up 0.90 or 0.45%.
The $RUT is at 1170 up 2.92 or 0.25%.
NASDAQ is at 4583 up 21 or 0.45%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4090 up 24 or 0.59%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 12.09 down 0.55 or -4.35%. Bullish Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 94.98 (resistance) and 92.88 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 93.48. (Chart Here)
There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here) (Look at the 5H time scale.)
Brent Crude is trading between 104.44 (resistance) and 100.38 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and quiet and is currently trading down at 100.89. (ChartHere)
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold rose from 1263.32 earlier to 1274.36 and is currently trading down (reversing course) at 1269.40. The current intra-session trend is trending up. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.171 rising from 3.143 earlier. Very volatile this morning. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 83.96 and 83.58 and is currently trading up at 83.79, the bias is currently sideways. (Chart Here)
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