Written by Gary
The Averages to watch were the large caps as they seemed to be the leaders of a continuing bull run, but today wasn't the day. The SP500 climbed to a new high (2024.46) twice and the begin a decline closing below its previous closing high by one point. The other averages behaved in a similar manner, all on low volume.
By 4 pm the market closed on mixed investor emotions all based on 'not-so-sure' crystal ball predictions.
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the close and the short-term market direction meter is Very Bearish. We remain mostly, at best, negative and conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have now turned and may be enough for some to start shorting. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get more aggressive in the short-term and volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 13.18. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warning of a 'long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 56 % Bearish (falling from 70% and now rising from 33%) and it seems to be a good sign for being bearish. The 'Sheeples' always seem to get it wrong.
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 48.2 % bullish with the status at BearCorrection. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the direction continue to descend.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 84.99. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. (Now were are high enough to descend again - watch out!)
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 57.62 %. (Chart Here) The downside decent has reversed, but will it continue to rise above 50%? The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's.
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 52.38. (Chart Here) Below support zone but rising. Next stop was ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. We are seriously below 44 and need a reversal pronto as it looks like there is nothing to stop the fall until 25 and taking the markets with it.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 62.00. (Chart Here) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 23.48. (Chart Here)
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 68.16. (Chart Here)
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,801. (Chart Here) We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance at ~10600/700, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. If they don't then there an excellent possibility for the markets going higher now that we have topped 10800. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.
Here is some disturbing news from Stocktiming.com.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17366 down 24 or -0.14%.
The SP500 is at 2018 down 0.24 or -0.01%.
SPY is at 201.78 up 0.11 or 0.05%.
The $RUT is at 1170 down 3 or -0.28%.
NASDAQ is at 4639 up 8 or 0.18%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4169 up 11 or 0.27%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 14.76 up 0.73 or 5.20%. Neutral Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is trending sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 80.97 (resistance) and 78.16 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 78.28. (Chart Here)
Brent Crude is trading between 86.21 (resistance) and 84.16 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 84.16. (Chart Here)
Gold rose from 1161.31 earlier to 1173.27 and is currently trading up at 1166.30. The current intra-session trend is neutral. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.064 falling from 3.069 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 87.51 and 87.12 and is currently trading up at 87.42, the bias is currently positive. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily.
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